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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL AND ERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening. These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common. ...Discussion... Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Saturday. It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. ...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians... While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that the environment within the developing instability axis will become at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development by midday. This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal in model output that convection will become widespread, with potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable organizing storm clusters. Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads eastward and southeastward into this evening. ..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025 Read more

The statewide burn ban for Nebraska was extended for the western three-fourths of the state and remained in effect through May 10. Nebraska Public Media (Lincoln), April 29, 2025 Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen enacted a statewide burn ban as dry conditions gripped the state, and the Plum Creek Fire claimed more than 24,000 acres in northern Nebraska. News Channel Nebraska (Grand Island, Neb.), April 23, 2025

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE PVW TO 50 W CSM TO 70 NW CSM. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-075-087-129-191-211-483-020540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY HALL HEMPHILL WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE PVW TO 50 W CSM TO 70 NW CSM. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-075-087-129-191-211-483-020540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY HALL HEMPHILL WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE PVW TO 50 W CSM TO 70 NW CSM. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-075-087-129-191-211-483-020540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY HALL HEMPHILL WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE PVW TO 50 W CSM TO 70 NW CSM. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-075-087-129-191-211-483-020540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY HALL HEMPHILL WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE PVW TO 50 W CSM TO 70 NW CSM. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-075-087-129-191-211-483-020540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY HALL HEMPHILL WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 207 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 012300Z - 020600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 600 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of cells will likely grow upscale into a linear band of storms as this activity intensifies and moves east-southeast across the Watch area this evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the more intense thunderstorms and surging outflow. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Clayton NM to 55 miles north northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0208 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0208 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0640 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0640 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206... Valid 020206Z - 020400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may persist for the next 1-2 hours across central Pennsylvania, but a general weakening trend is expected through 03 UTC amid the onset of nocturnal cooling. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and RAP analyses show an expansive cold pool in place across central PA in the wake of a thunderstorm cluster earlier this evening. However, VWP observations from KCCX continue to show strong warm advection within the lowest 1-2 km AGL, which is not only supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, but is also maintaining modest warm/moist advection into the region from the south/southeast where dewpoints remain in the low to mid 60s. Consequently, sufficient buoyancy remains in place across the region to support deep convection - as evidenced by cooling cloud top temperatures and increasing echo tops over the past 30 minutes. Given sufficient (albeit limited) buoyancy and strong low-level wind shear, storm organization remains possible with an attendant threat for damaging winds in the near term across central PA. Beyond 03 UTC, confidence in this threat wanes as nocturnal cooling will continue to promote increasing low-level inhibition and diminishing buoyancy. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP... LAT...LON 39977890 40737876 41077846 41267808 41267763 41047722 40687715 40337716 39987738 39797769 39747837 39807876 39977890 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AMA TO 25 SE BGD TO 40 SE GUY. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-045-069-075-087-129-179-191-211-295-357-381-393-437-483- 020440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HALL HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AMA TO 25 SE BGD TO 40 SE GUY. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-045-069-075-087-129-179-191-211-295-357-381-393-437-483- 020440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HALL HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more