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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO 20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV. ..MOORE..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119- 020240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR 2NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...2Northeast Arkansas into the lower OH River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012319Z - 020115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may continue to pose a severe hail and damaging wind threat through the early evening hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a mid-level trough have been more intense and persistent than initially anticipated based on an environmental analysis. Over the past 1-2 hours, these thunderstorms have intensified within a subtle theta-e/buoyancy ridge extending from northeast AR into the lower OH River Valley with a 1.75 inch hail report noted over the past hour. Deep-layer wind shear within the base of the mid-level trough axis remains fairly marginal based on regional VWP observations (20-25 knots), however, the combination of sufficient deep-layer shear and augmented buoyancy have been adequate to promote thunderstorms with weak/transient mid-level mesocyclones in the stronger cells. Storms may continue to intensify to severe levels over the next 1-2 hours as they traverse the buoyancy ridge and prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling after 01 UTC. The stronger cells may be capable of 1-1.75 inch hail and damaging gusts, though the overall coverage and duration of the threat should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36839132 37329103 37969031 38688890 38878817 38758773 38498738 38218723 37978721 37618737 37418756 36088983 35699050 35659087 35679114 35829148 36049158 36289161 36839132 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 206 SEVERE TSTM PA 012235Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Pennsylvania * Effective this Thursday evening from 635 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms in the vicinity of a warm front advancing northward will be capable of strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) and large hail. This activity will spread northeastward through the Watch with a gradual weakening expected towards mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Dubois PA to 60 miles east southeast of State College PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204...WW 205... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

MD 0638 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203... FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Ohio into western West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203... Valid 012250Z - 020045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 continues. SUMMARY...WW 203 will be allowed to expire at 23 UTC, but a localized corridor of wind damage potential may persist downstream of a line of thunderstorms for the next 1-2 hours. New watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KRLX shows a convective line that was once mostly outflow-dominant attempting to established a more well-balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone as new convection develops along the leading edge of the cold pool. Although GOES IR imagery continues to show warming cloud top temperatures (indicative of a weakening trend), lightning trends over the past 20 minutes suggest new updrafts are beginning to intensify. The onset of nocturnal cooling is gradually diminishing the thermodynamic environment downstream of this line, but VWP observations from KRLX continues to sample around 20 knots of 0-1 km bulk shear with shear vectors oriented largely orthogonal to the cold pool. Consequently, some organization/intensification of this line segment appears possible as storms move northeast along the OH river. Given the thermodynamic trends, additional watch issuance is not anticipated, but sporadic damaging winds appear possible for the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38098280 38628270 38788262 39758142 39848079 39728049 39558033 39288028 39068036 38168205 38048238 38018257 38098280 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0636 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...extreme northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012229Z - 020030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered robust thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage this evening. Hail and wind appear likely with some of this activity. Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across southeast CO, ahead of a more significant 500mb speed max that will translate into eastern WY later tonight. This lead feature appears instrumental in recent uptick in convection across the higher terrain of extreme southern CO into northeast NM. While moisture is a bit scant across this region, strong shear and steep 0-3km lapse rates are favorable for maturing updrafts, and some potential for supercells. With time an expanding corridor of robust convection is expected to spread/develop southeast into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings suggest hail could be common, along with gusty winds. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36600295 36140042 34670098 35020325 35880408 36600295 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW TCC TO 30 SSW EHA. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC037-020140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE QUAY TXC011-045-065-075-087-111-117-129-179-191-195-205-211-233-295- 341-357-359-375-381-393-421-483-020140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW TCC TO 30 SSW EHA. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC037-020140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE QUAY TXC011-045-065-075-087-111-117-129-179-191-195-205-211-233-295- 341-357-359-375-381-393-421-483-020140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW TCC TO 30 SSW EHA. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC037-020140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE QUAY TXC011-045-065-075-087-111-117-129-179-191-195-205-211-233-295- 341-357-359-375-381-393-421-483-020140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395- 411-453-491-020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CORYELL FALLS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more