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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more