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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0204 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LEX TO 40 ENE LUK TO 25 NNE CMH TO 30 NNW CLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-021-023-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-097-113- 129-135-151-155-161-165-167-173-175-181-197-201-205-209-237-239- 012040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP HARRISON JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MARION MASON MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN SCOTT WOLFE WOODFORD OHC001-005-007-009-013-015-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067- 071-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-089-093-099-103-105-111-115-119- 121-127-129-131-133-139-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169- Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more