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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast... Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low, there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing isolated wind damage. Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon, with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind damage and some hail will be possible. There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the influence of convection prior to D3. ...Deep South TX... A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent updates. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE SDF TO 10 SSE LUK TO 40 SSE FDY TO 35 E TOL. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC005-011-017-019-021-023-043-049-063-065-067-069-073-079-089- 097-113-129-135-151-155-161-165-167-173-175-181-191-197-201-205- 209-229-237-239-011940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN GARRARD GREENUP HARRISON JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MARION MASON MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS PENDLETON POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN SCOTT WASHINGTON WOLFE WOODFORD OHC001-005-007-009-013-015-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043- 045-047-049-053-055-059-067-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087- 089-093-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-119-121-123-127-129-131- 133-139-141-143-145-147-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-011940- Read more

MD 0631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR OH...WESTERN PA...EASTERN KY...NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...OH...western PA...eastern KY...northern WV Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 011612Z - 011815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Lower-topped convection along a confluence axis should intensify through the afternoon, increasing the risk for scattered damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe hail. With moderate uncertainty on timing and spatial extent, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed, centered on the Upper Ohio Valley. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased along a generally north/south-oriented confluence axis along the IN/OH border into central KY. 30-35 kt measured gusts have been observed thus far, with much of the line remaining low-topped. Modified 12Z ILN sounding along with short-term forecast soundings indicate the downstream airmass is supporting weak buoyancy as temperatures have warmed to 75-80 F. Further warming is expected to yield 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in the next hour or two. These soundings along with regional VWP data suggest that much of the wind shear is concentrated in the low-levels with an ill-defined mid/upper hodograph amid a unidirectional southwesterly profile. This suggests that supercells should struggle to be maintained beyond weak/transient structures. Morning CAM guidance also offers a variety of potential outcomes this afternoon, but the more preferred guidance depicts scattered multicell clustering increasing across OH into eastern KY. Small to marginally severe hail cores should enhance downdraft potential for scattered damaging winds. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 39818418 40008411 40618385 40858310 41138217 41328095 41348052 41087992 40627967 40068000 39618046 39428119 38838244 37838377 37928519 39818418 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. ...Synopsis... Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday. A separate/lead shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence Valley. The lead shortwave trough will be associated with a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front into the lower Great Lakes. Farther southwest, the surface pattern will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR. ...Central TX to middle TN... Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX into central AR. Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail. Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. The eastern extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the more persistent supercells). There will also be some increase in the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX coast and south central TX into Friday night. ...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY... The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector is expected. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow (up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters. Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface heating/larger buoyancy will compensate. Storm coverage is expected to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage. ..Thompson.. 05/01/2025 Read more