Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An amplifying upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. will bring significant weather changes to the region, including fire weather concerns to the Southwest starting on Day 3/Saturday, possibly into Day 6/Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet max rounding the base of the trough will be the primary mechanism generating Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Confidence is highest for Day 4/Sunday across far southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico where a 70 percent Critical probability area was added, as a strong south-southwest wind regime moves over a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. The far Northern Plains could also see strong southerly winds and low relative humidity overlap on Sunday in advance of the trough but uncertainty in spatial coverage of precipitation preceding the higher winds is a limiting factor in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Rain and higher elevation snow is expected across much of the western U.S. from Days 3-6 which will mitigate fire weather concerns for all but far southern Arizona and New Mexico. ...Florida... A cold front trailing south of nascent cut-off low across the Midwest should bring more rain relief to Florida on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, mitigating fire weather concerns in the short term. ..Williams.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 1 22:07:03 UTC 2025.

The Comal River was flowing at less than 80 cubic feet per second. An ideal range for recreation is between 100 and 500 cfs. With the flow being so low, people can still tube down the Comal River, but the flow is lazier, so the journey takes longer. Spectrum News 1 - Austin (Texas), May 1, 2025

MD 0634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV PANHANDLES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...western MD/eastern WV Panhandles into south-central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012022Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A single, slow-moving supercell may persist for the next couple hours with a threat of large hail and localized damaging winds. Confidence is low in greater coverage/longevity for a potential severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...A supercell centered on Allegany County, MD has had the most impressive observational structure per radar/satellite trends, relative to other severe storms in the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes region. This cell appears to be anchored near a slow-moving warm front, likely ingesting a mesoscale ribbon of mid 60s surface dew points southeastward along the WV/VA/MD border area. Given the relatively confined region of this enhancement, with a substantially drier air mass both to the northeast and south, the longevity of a sustained supercell structure is questionable. However, it is plausible that a localized severe hail/wind threat may continue for the next couple hours. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40187889 40417839 40357799 40057745 39807752 39557809 39517888 39707911 40187889 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0205 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Water use in Palm Coast rose to alarming levels, which could compromise firefighting activities during an emergency. Over the weekend, water consumption reached 12.1 million gallons daily, which is extremely high, according to the acting city manager. City employees have called some homes with exceptionally high water use and requested that they decrease their lawn watering. FlaglerLive.com (Fla.), April 23, 2025

Starting May 1, all non-essential outdoor watering in Chatham was limited to two days a week. The region was recognized by the state Energy and Environmental Affairs Office in April as being in a Level 2 “significant” drought. The Cape Cod Chronicle (Mass.), May 1, 2025

St. Johns River Water Management District authorities were urging residents across east-central Florida, including Volusia and Flagler counties, not to water excessively. The Daytona Beach News-Journal (Fla.), May 1, 2025

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395- 411-453-491-012140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CORYELL FALLS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395- 411-453-491-012140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CORYELL FALLS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011903Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail will be possible with widely scattered supercells this afternoon. A watch is possible for parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. Timing and where the greatest concentration of storms will be remains uncertain. Trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass has spread northward into much of central and eastern Texas. Cumulus towers have been increasing along an outflow boundary in central Texas and along a moisture gradient/pseudo dryline within the Edwards Plateau as temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Mid-level ascent will be weak, but strong surface heating and minimal MLCIN should allow a few widely scattered supercells to develop. The most organized storms are more likely in central Texas where effective shear will be greater. Storm coverage will likely be higher near the outflow boundary as the moisture gradient is less convergent. Storms this afternoon will be capable of large to very-large hail and severe gusts. A watch is possible for portions of these regions. The uncertainty will be the timing and placement of possible watches. Trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30049901 29459947 29120022 29290072 29550091 29840078 30010058 31029904 31389834 31499815 31549796 31319746 31069672 30719638 30449662 30479704 30689754 30639829 30049901 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more

WW 0203 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW LEX TO 35 SE LUK TO 30 SSE MFD TO 35 NE CLE. ..GRAMS..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...RLX...ILN...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-019-043-049-063-065-067-069-079-089-113-129-135-151- 161-165-173-175-181-197-201-205-237-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYD CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREENUP JESSAMINE LEE LEWIS MADISON MASON MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN WOLFE OHC001-007-009-013-019-029-031-035-045-053-055-059-067-073-075- 079-081-083-085-087-089-099-103-105-111-115-119-121-127-129-131- 133-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-167-169-012140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA Read more