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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis will strengthen on Monday in the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough advects eastward. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will advect into West Texas which will result in strong instability as temperatures continue to cool aloft. Expect scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. However, more widespread storm development is likely after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens across West Texas. Initial supercells will have a threat for all severe weather hazards before eventual upscale growth into a MCS likely results in a greater severe wind threat. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Central/East Texas into Louisiana... Day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone across central/East Texas and persist eastward through the day. Destabilization remains questionable as strong high pressure and the low-latitude nature of the mid-level trough may limit northward movement of the warm front. The potential for this front to be stationary, in addition to widespread convection/cloud cover concerns along the front, preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, there will likely be a corridor along the frontal zone with some greater severe weather threat which may become more clear as the event draws closer. Additional severe storms will be possible Day 6 and 7 along the frontal zone/composite outflow in Texas, but the location of this feature and degree of destabilization along it will be highly dependent on prior days convective activity. For these reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis will strengthen on Monday in the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough advects eastward. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will advect into West Texas which will result in strong instability as temperatures continue to cool aloft. Expect scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. However, more widespread storm development is likely after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens across West Texas. Initial supercells will have a threat for all severe weather hazards before eventual upscale growth into a MCS likely results in a greater severe wind threat. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Central/East Texas into Louisiana... Day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone across central/East Texas and persist eastward through the day. Destabilization remains questionable as strong high pressure and the low-latitude nature of the mid-level trough may limit northward movement of the warm front. The potential for this front to be stationary, in addition to widespread convection/cloud cover concerns along the front, preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, there will likely be a corridor along the frontal zone with some greater severe weather threat which may become more clear as the event draws closer. Additional severe storms will be possible Day 6 and 7 along the frontal zone/composite outflow in Texas, but the location of this feature and degree of destabilization along it will be highly dependent on prior days convective activity. For these reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis will strengthen on Monday in the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough advects eastward. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will advect into West Texas which will result in strong instability as temperatures continue to cool aloft. Expect scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. However, more widespread storm development is likely after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens across West Texas. Initial supercells will have a threat for all severe weather hazards before eventual upscale growth into a MCS likely results in a greater severe wind threat. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Central/East Texas into Louisiana... Day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along a frontal zone across central/East Texas and persist eastward through the day. Destabilization remains questionable as strong high pressure and the low-latitude nature of the mid-level trough may limit northward movement of the warm front. The potential for this front to be stationary, in addition to widespread convection/cloud cover concerns along the front, preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. However, there will likely be a corridor along the frontal zone with some greater severe weather threat which may become more clear as the event draws closer. Additional severe storms will be possible Day 6 and 7 along the frontal zone/composite outflow in Texas, but the location of this feature and degree of destabilization along it will be highly dependent on prior days convective activity. For these reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

MD 0642 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208... FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...much of southern and central Oklahoma...far northern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208... Valid 020703Z - 020900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of severe gusts and hail remains over the entire watch area, with brief tornadoes, sporadic very large hail, and perhaps locally significant gusts over southern Oklahoma and along the Red River Valley. DISCUSSION...Storms have rapidly increased in coverage across much of western through southern OK, as the influence of the upper trough and cooling aloft overspread the moist and unstable air mass. The greatest threat area should continue to be over southern parts of the watch, in proximity to the stationary front. Here, both moisture, instability and convergence are maximized. Very large storms have evolved out of this developing cluster, with new cells just east of the primary supercell. Given the strong instability, low-level shear may be sufficient to support periodic mesocyclones and brief tornadoes. The primary risk will more likely be damaging wind and hail, both of which could be locally significant. For northern areas, the storms associated with the cold pool surge out of the west may continue to produce at least near-severe gusts. Although the low-level jet is not strong this evening, a very slow northward push of elevated moisture, coupled with steep lapse rates aloft, could conceivably aid some strengthening over time. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33829828 33899865 33999885 34189891 34409871 34569771 34589721 34669616 34499590 34159578 33819605 33659635 33739762 33829828 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CDS TO 25 NW SPS TO 25 SSE FSI TO 25 E FSI TO 5 ESE CHK TO 20 NW OKC TO 20 E END. ..JEWELL..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-017-019-023-027-029-033-049-051-061-063-067-069-077- 079-081-083-085-087-091-095-099-107-109-111-121-123-125-127-133- 137-141-020940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COTTON GARVIN GRADY HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC077-097-147-181-197-277-337-485-487-020940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina. ...Discussion... A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms mostly suppressed across Florida. A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be focused across the Southwest as isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop through late Saturday afternoon. Upper ridging is expected to spread across the High Plains through the day as an upper wave begins to approach the West Coast. Southerly low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper wave will help maintain a modestly moist air mass (characterized by 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values) across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Increasing broad scale ascent, coupled with antecedent steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote isolated thunderstorms from central NM to central NV by late afternoon. Limited moisture throughout the column combined with deep boundary layers will act to limit precipitation amounts and support dry lightning strikes. While this potential is noted across a broad swath of the region, the fire weather threat will be greatest across eastern AZ into NM where fuel conditions are currently the driest per recent fuel and drought guidance. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more