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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0209 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 2 14:42:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0643 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-South to TN Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021328Z - 021500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed to address severe-thunderstorm development eastward from the Mid-South. DISCUSSION...Multiple, probable severe thunderstorms have recently developed around the greater Memphis vicinity of the Mid-South. While slightly elevated at this time, downstream insolation should yield a transition to mainly surface-based storms in the next couple hours. Overnight CAM signals appear too slow on timing, evolution to broader multicell clustering with transient supercells seems probable into midday. 12Z Nashville observed sounding and recent Memphis VWP data sampled minimal MLCIN along with moderate westerly speed shear. This should support large hail as the primary near-term threat, along with increasing damaging wind potential later this morning. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36078982 36368903 36838802 36978650 36968549 36618535 36058550 35118684 34578780 34158856 34138943 34248997 34589045 35199019 36078982 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

The South Florida Water Management District prohibited outdoor watering in Cape Coral as the level of the Mid-Hawthorn aquifer was dangerously low. Gulf Coast Now (Fort Myers, Fla.), May 2, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be expected regionally this afternoon into evening. Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be expected regionally this afternoon into evening. Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025 Read more