Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z Adjustments were made to the dry thunderstorm risk across portions of central New Mexico to reduce the spatial extent across central/east-central New Mexico. Though moisture is limited, it appears that storm motions and coverage will be sufficient for wetting rainfall across this area. HREF guidance suggests a broad swath of 0.25-0.50" of rain is possible. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0210 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE GLH TO 10 SSE JBR. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-021740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE ARC035-021740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN KYC001-003-009-031-033-035-047-053-057-061-083-087-099-141-143- 157-169-171-177-207-213-217-219-221-227-021740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY Read more