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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 2 18:02:06 UTC 2025.

MD 0648 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... FOR PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of the TN Valley and Mid-South Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209... Valid 021629Z - 021800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple swaths of damaging winds and severe hail are expected through the afternoon. A corridor of greater severe wind and brief tornado potential is apparent across northern Mississippi into far southwest Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters along with an emerging linear segment are ongoing from the Mid-South across the TN Valley. Primary large hail threat is with the leading convection and developing cells to its south. Primary damaging wind threat will likely evolve in two regimes. In the near-term, across northern MS into far southwest TN where a north/south-oriented line segment progresses across the trailing outflow from the leading convection. This may also support potential for a tornado or two with enhanced low-level SRH along the outflow. Downstream in northern AL through middle TN and southern KY, damaging wind coverage should increase into late afternoon as greater amalgamation of convection occurs. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 36518766 37298752 37528666 37508604 37218579 36098586 34688620 33928709 33808873 33828988 33879028 34569040 35229017 35318900 35558825 36078790 36518766 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...central into eastern Texas and far western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021605Z - 021800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the afternoon hours as storms develop and become more widespread. The stronger storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary from earlier storms continues to slowly drift southward across central TX into LA, with clearing and insolation contributing to continued boundary-layer destabilization on both sides of the boundary. While strong storms may develop from re-intensifying convection across northern TX, the most likely location for the development of robust severe storms will be along the outflow boundary, as well as with convection that has already initiated in the warm sector across southeast TX. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a moist boundary layer, characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints, contributing to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. As the mid-level trough over the Plains states undergoes amplification this afternoon, and is overspread by 80+ kts of 300 mb westerly flow from an approaching sub-tropical jet stream, deep-layer shear should increase, supporting well over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. When considering the strong instability in place, several supercells should develop, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. Multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible given the expected increase of strong mid to upper-level shear, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially with any dominant supercell structures interacting with mesoscale boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29620146 31049884 32129670 32819462 32859403 32579359 32329347 31499349 30679358 30079390 29669431 29509474 29169621 28769789 28639937 28620012 28690048 28870068 29110088 29300115 29620146 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0646 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH GA THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...north GA through the western Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021603Z - 021800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail will be possible through this afternoon. While a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is not anticipated, we'll be monitoring for greater severe-storm coverage/organization. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be underway across north GA into far western SC, with more isolated development into western NC. The air mass across GA is moderately unstable with weaker buoyancy northeastward. Deep-layer shear is lacking though with decidedly veered and weak lower-level winds per FFC/GSP VWP data. This is expected to remain largely steady-state through the afternoon. Adequate mid-level westerlies should exist for some small to marginally severe hail cores. This would enhance microburst potential and attendant threat for localized wind damage. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 34988433 35248276 36338129 36698033 36487926 35508015 34628106 33778212 33568325 33578402 33648459 34018465 34988433 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0645 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OH INTO WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...OH into western PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021543Z - 021745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A generally isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat should develop this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway across parts of west-central OH along a weak cold front that is progged to move east through the afternoon. Additional storm formation is expected along the front northward to Lake Erie. With only scattered clouds ahead of the front, further boundary-layer heating will support modest MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg later this afternoon. Moderate west-southwesterly speed shear will favor multicell clusters with a sporadic severe hail and damaging wind threat. Low confidence exists for more substantial organization, rendering some uncertainty regarding the overall coverage of severe this afternoon. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39618438 40308442 41278272 41858051 41897973 41687940 41047959 40787988 40088107 39468336 39618438 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0212 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt mid/upper trough from the Great Lakes to East Texas will shift east over the MS Valley as an upper cyclone develops over IL/MO by early afternoon. The upper cyclone should progress eastward over the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity by the end of the period. Ahead of this system, a broad swath of modest southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis is forecast over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the Northeast, the central Appalachians, and much of the Southeast through Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will develop inland across the West. A belt of enhanced southerly mid/upper flow is expected to overspread portions of the Great Basin and the northern Rockies as this occurs. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the northern Great Basin. ...Southeast to Northeast U.S.... Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward ahead of the aforementioned cold front and surface low. Dewpoints will generally range from the upper 60s to low 60s F, though a corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints may occur from the Southeast into the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of MS/AL into the Lower OH Valley Saturday morning. Some of this activity across the Southeast could pose a risk for strong gusts. Additional convection is expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front within a modestly destabilizing airmass (MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg). Overall, vertical shear profiles are forecast to remain modest, with less than 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. However, closer to the surface low and within a zone of potentially stronger differential heating from the central Appalachians to southeast PA, 25-35 kt effective shear may support better organized/stronger updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and hail to 1.5 inches could occur with these cells within an area of steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate shear. An upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5) has been included with this outlook update. The severe risk across the broader region will be tempered by modest shear/instability, though isolated strong gusts or hail may occur with any stronger cells. Additionally, with eastward extent into the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic coastal areas, inhibition will increase during the evening as storms move into these areas, further limiting severe potential. ...NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon amid increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid and low-level lapse rates. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7-7.5 C/km, fostering up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Midlevel flow around 30-45 kt atop steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer suggest some stronger outflow winds will be possible with the convection and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ...South TX... Strong storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period as the southwest extent of the aforementioned cold front overlies far South TX. Strong gusts could occur with this activity for a few hours in the morning before the boundary pushes south. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more