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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Coastal GA to southern PA... A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across portions of the Southeast and central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization, but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. ...FL... While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast. Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze boundary. ...Eastern NM... An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2025 Read more

WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-043-061-115-123-155-022040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON OHIO PERRY SWITZERLAND KYC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-037-041-045-049-051- 063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-091-093-095-097-103-109-111- 113-117-121-123-125-129-131-135-137-147-151-153-155-161-163-165- 167-173-175-179-181-183-185-187-189-191-193-197-199-201-203-205- 209-211-215-223-229-231-235-237-239-022040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LUK TO 40 SSE FDY TO 25 W CAK TO 35 NE CLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-013-019-021-023-027-029-031-041-047-049-055-057-059-067- 075-081-083-085-089-097-099-101-111-117-119-121-133-151-153-155- 157-159-165-169-022040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GEAUGA GREENE GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LICKING MADISON MAHONING MARION MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS UNION WARREN WAYNE PAC007-019-031-039-049-053-073-085-121-022040- Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE GLH TO 20 N TUP TO 40 WSW HOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649. ..GRAMS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-022040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-047-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207- 213-217-219-221-227-022040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN Read more

WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0214 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0214 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MEM TO 20 ENE MEM TO 35 SSW PAH. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-021940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-033-035-047-053-057-059-061-083-087-099-107- 141-143-149-157-169-171-177-207-213-217-219-221-227-021940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAVES GREEN HART HOPKINS LOGAN LYON MCLEAN MARSHALL METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DAY TO 25 NW CLE. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-041-047-049-055-057- 075-077-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-109-113-117-133-139- 151-153-155-157-159-165-169-021940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA CARROLL CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GEAUGA GREENE HOLMES HURON KNOX LAKE LICKING LOGAN LORAIN MADISON MAHONING MARION MEDINA MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS UNION WARREN WAYNE PAC007-019-031-039-049-053-073-085-121-021940- PA Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-039-041-043- 049-059-061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123- 127-021940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION VERNON WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-039-041-043- 049-059-061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123- 127-021940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION VERNON WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-015-021-027-029-031-035-041-051-053-055-089-091-099-123- 139-145-149-157-161-171-177-185-187-193-201-209-213-217-225-251- 255-259-281-285-287-289-291-293-299-309-313-331-333-339-349-373- 395-407-453-455-471-473-477-491-493-021940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BEXAR BLANCO BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL CORYELL DEWITT ELLIS FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND FREESTONE GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HAMILTON HARRIS HAYS HENDERSON HILL HOUSTON JOHNSON KARNES KENDALL LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MILLS MONTGOMERY NAVARRO POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-015-021-027-029-031-035-041-051-053-055-089-091-099-123- 139-145-149-157-161-171-177-185-187-193-201-209-213-217-225-251- 255-259-281-285-287-289-291-293-299-309-313-331-333-339-349-373- 395-407-453-455-471-473-477-491-493-021940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BEXAR BLANCO BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL CORYELL DEWITT ELLIS FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND FREESTONE GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HAMILTON HARRIS HAYS HENDERSON HILL HOUSTON JOHNSON KARNES KENDALL LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MILLS MONTGOMERY NAVARRO POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-043-061-115-123-155-021940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON OHIO PERRY SWITZERLAND KYC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-037-041-045-049-051- 063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-091-093-095-097-103-109-111- 113-117-121-123-125-129-131-135-137-147-151-153-155-161-163-165- 167-173-175-179-181-183-185-187-189-191-193-197-199-201-203-205- 209-211-215-223-229-231-235-237-239-021940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN GALLATIN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 2 18:02:06 UTC 2025.

MD 0648 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... FOR PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of the TN Valley and Mid-South Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209... Valid 021629Z - 021800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple swaths of damaging winds and severe hail are expected through the afternoon. A corridor of greater severe wind and brief tornado potential is apparent across northern Mississippi into far southwest Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters along with an emerging linear segment are ongoing from the Mid-South across the TN Valley. Primary large hail threat is with the leading convection and developing cells to its south. Primary damaging wind threat will likely evolve in two regimes. In the near-term, across northern MS into far southwest TN where a north/south-oriented line segment progresses across the trailing outflow from the leading convection. This may also support potential for a tornado or two with enhanced low-level SRH along the outflow. Downstream in northern AL through middle TN and southern KY, damaging wind coverage should increase into late afternoon as greater amalgamation of convection occurs. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 36518766 37298752 37528666 37508604 37218579 36098586 34688620 33928709 33808873 33828988 33879028 34569040 35229017 35318900 35558825 36078790 36518766 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...central into eastern Texas and far western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021605Z - 021800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the afternoon hours as storms develop and become more widespread. The stronger storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary from earlier storms continues to slowly drift southward across central TX into LA, with clearing and insolation contributing to continued boundary-layer destabilization on both sides of the boundary. While strong storms may develop from re-intensifying convection across northern TX, the most likely location for the development of robust severe storms will be along the outflow boundary, as well as with convection that has already initiated in the warm sector across southeast TX. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a moist boundary layer, characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints, contributing to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. As the mid-level trough over the Plains states undergoes amplification this afternoon, and is overspread by 80+ kts of 300 mb westerly flow from an approaching sub-tropical jet stream, deep-layer shear should increase, supporting well over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. When considering the strong instability in place, several supercells should develop, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. Multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible given the expected increase of strong mid to upper-level shear, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially with any dominant supercell structures interacting with mesoscale boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29620146 31049884 32129670 32819462 32859403 32579359 32329347 31499349 30679358 30079390 29669431 29509474 29169621 28769789 28639937 28620012 28690048 28870068 29110088 29300115 29620146 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more