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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more