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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more