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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041759Z - 042030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sparse strong wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms that develop, and an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are maturing along a remnant frontal boundary across the northern Florida Peninsula, and are poised to progress into a destabilizing airmass, where over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place. Despite adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker compared to the southern FL Peninsula, where the 300 mb jet maximum will be located later this afternoon. As such, the modest buoyancy and mediocre shear profile should limit severe wind and hail from becoming widespread, though a couple of strong wind gusts are still possible, along with an instance of hail. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance appears unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27238151 28048174 29408213 30058222 30398220 30498188 30208148 29208097 28678064 28388061 27768043 27438033 27178046 27088097 27098116 27238151 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...western/central/northern NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041802Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...To the northwest of the more favorable supercell regime in southeast New Mexico, sporadic/isolated severe wind gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Similar to southeast NM, a difluent upper-level flow regime and orographic forcing will support scattered high-based convection this afternoon, centered on west-central to northwest and north-central NM. However, this will remain within a predominantly meridional flow regime, limiting veering of the wind profile with height. Coupled with surface dew points predominately holding in the 30s, supporting only meager buoyancy, overall setup is unlikely to sustain organized severe. Nevertheless, well-mixed thermodynamic profiles will offer a threat for sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts, as convection moves north-northeast this afternoon. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 36950668 36570557 35670480 34850456 34270624 33220656 33120741 34080806 35820861 36530846 36950668 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of the southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041737Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may accompany the stronger, longer lasting storms, with strong wind gusts and hail being the main threats. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters/possible transient supercells have developed across the southern FL Peninsula amid a destabilizing airmass. Surface temperatures are well into the 80s F, with surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F, contributing to over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates. A 60+ kt 300 mb wind maximum is approaching the southern FL Peninsula, which will contribute to elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. The resulting deep-layer speed shear (perhaps exceeding 40 kts) should support the production of both hail and strong wind gusts in the longer lived, more organized storms, especially if a sustained supercell can materialize. A tornado also cannot be completely ruled out with any storms interacting with outflow or sea-breeze boundaries. Overall though, the severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 25378052 25908096 26298122 26858127 27118084 27168032 27018007 26268000 25898002 25528021 25308032 25378052 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more