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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0222 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 4 18:37:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0678 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0678 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 041722Z - 041915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A few to several supercells, a couple of which may be long-lived, should develop across southeast New Mexico into parts of far west Texas this afternoon. Golf to tennis ball size hail, localized severe gusts to 70 mph, and a brief tornado will be possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Despite modest low-level moisture, the northwest extent of mid to upper 40s surface dew points should be maintained through peak boundary-layer mixing. A difluent mid/upper flow regime downstream of a strong zonal jetlet, centered on the border area with northwest Mexico, and orographic forcing will aid in sufficient ascent for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Low-level south-southeasterlies veering to the west-southwesterlies aloft will be favorable for supercells, a couple of which may be long-lived. Initial supercells should remain tied to the higher terrain near the Sacramento Mountains into the far northern portion of the Trans-Pecos with effective bulk shear from 30-40 kts. This will increase above 40 kts towards late afternoon. Robust speed shear in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile coupled with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. The overall spatial extent of sustained supercells should be fairly confined, owing to more pronounced MLCIN southward in the Trans-Pecos and diminishing buoyancy northward in NM. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33000620 33620623 34170608 34440475 33830393 33060301 32540281 31930292 31280315 30880398 31370457 31920522 33000620 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper cyclones, one over the Ohio Valley and the other across the Southwest, will pivot east on Monday. These systems will support a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies/High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from the Mid-Atlantic south/southwest into north-central FL. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to develop across eastern NM and southwest TX, while a warm front lifts slowly northward across northwest and central TX. These features will focus potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the evening/overnight. ...Southeast NM into Central TX... Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest toward southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos vicinity ahead of a sharpening dryline. Strong heating along/just behind the dryline will foster moderate diurnal destabilization as deep-layer flow strengthens. Forecast hodographs initially will be elongated/straight through the afternoon and early evening. Splitting supercells produce large/very large hail are expected with initial convection. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates where stronger heating occurs also could support strong/severe gusts. During the evening, a low-level jet will increase, resulting in enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Additional rounds of supercells may develop as the dryline begins to retreat and stronger ascent overspreads the region. This activity will continue to pose a significant hail risk with an increasing risk for a couple of tornadoes. As the upper low draws closer to the southern Rockies during the nighttime hours, weak cyclogenesis may occur over far southwest TX. Additional thunderstorm clusters, possibly growing upscale into an MCS propagating along the higher theta-e gradient across west-central to central TX is possible. It is uncertain how intense this convection may become given multiple rounds of convection across parts of the area earlier in the day, but some risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two will persist. ...OK/TX Panhandle into Northeast NM/southeast CO... With northward extent across the southern High Plains, northward moisture return will remain muted, with dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F forecast. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates amid strengthening vertical shear. Isolated large hail and gusty winds may accompany thunderstorm activity north of the effective warm front in an upslope flow regime. ...Mid-Atlantic to Lower Great Lakes... Pockets of heating into the afternoon amid mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints, and cold temperatures aloft will support modest destabilization (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region. Enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear values to around 35-45 kt. This should support isolated organized updrafts, with stronger cells having potential for large hail and locally strong gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...FL... A surface cold front will sag south through the period. Furthermore, an east coast sea breeze developing ahead of the cold front appears probable. Strong heating amid mid 60s F dewpoints will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg). Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. While deep-layer flow will be somewhat weak through 700 mb, vertically veering wind profiles will support around 30 kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs in conjunction with a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests isolated hail will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates also will support strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper cyclones, one over the Ohio Valley and the other across the Southwest, will pivot east on Monday. These systems will support a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies/High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from the Mid-Atlantic south/southwest into north-central FL. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to develop across eastern NM and southwest TX, while a warm front lifts slowly northward across northwest and central TX. These features will focus potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the evening/overnight. ...Southeast NM into Central TX... Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest toward southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos vicinity ahead of a sharpening dryline. Strong heating along/just behind the dryline will foster moderate diurnal destabilization as deep-layer flow strengthens. Forecast hodographs initially will be elongated/straight through the afternoon and early evening. Splitting supercells produce large/very large hail are expected with initial convection. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates where stronger heating occurs also could support strong/severe gusts. During the evening, a low-level jet will increase, resulting in enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Additional rounds of supercells may develop as the dryline begins to retreat and stronger ascent overspreads the region. This activity will continue to pose a significant hail risk with an increasing risk for a couple of tornadoes. As the upper low draws closer to the southern Rockies during the nighttime hours, weak cyclogenesis may occur over far southwest TX. Additional thunderstorm clusters, possibly growing upscale into an MCS propagating along the higher theta-e gradient across west-central to central TX is possible. It is uncertain how intense this convection may become given multiple rounds of convection across parts of the area earlier in the day, but some risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two will persist. ...OK/TX Panhandle into Northeast NM/southeast CO... With northward extent across the southern High Plains, northward moisture return will remain muted, with dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F forecast. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates amid strengthening vertical shear. Isolated large hail and gusty winds may accompany thunderstorm activity north of the effective warm front in an upslope flow regime. ...Mid-Atlantic to Lower Great Lakes... Pockets of heating into the afternoon amid mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints, and cold temperatures aloft will support modest destabilization (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region. Enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear values to around 35-45 kt. This should support isolated organized updrafts, with stronger cells having potential for large hail and locally strong gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...FL... A surface cold front will sag south through the period. Furthermore, an east coast sea breeze developing ahead of the cold front appears probable. Strong heating amid mid 60s F dewpoints will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg). Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. While deep-layer flow will be somewhat weak through 700 mb, vertically veering wind profiles will support around 30 kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs in conjunction with a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests isolated hail will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates also will support strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper cyclones, one over the Ohio Valley and the other across the Southwest, will pivot east on Monday. These systems will support a belt of enhanced mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies/High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from the Mid-Atlantic south/southwest into north-central FL. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to develop across eastern NM and southwest TX, while a warm front lifts slowly northward across northwest and central TX. These features will focus potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the evening/overnight. ...Southeast NM into Central TX... Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northwest toward southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos vicinity ahead of a sharpening dryline. Strong heating along/just behind the dryline will foster moderate diurnal destabilization as deep-layer flow strengthens. Forecast hodographs initially will be elongated/straight through the afternoon and early evening. Splitting supercells produce large/very large hail are expected with initial convection. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates where stronger heating occurs also could support strong/severe gusts. During the evening, a low-level jet will increase, resulting in enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Additional rounds of supercells may develop as the dryline begins to retreat and stronger ascent overspreads the region. This activity will continue to pose a significant hail risk with an increasing risk for a couple of tornadoes. As the upper low draws closer to the southern Rockies during the nighttime hours, weak cyclogenesis may occur over far southwest TX. Additional thunderstorm clusters, possibly growing upscale into an MCS propagating along the higher theta-e gradient across west-central to central TX is possible. It is uncertain how intense this convection may become given multiple rounds of convection across parts of the area earlier in the day, but some risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two will persist. ...OK/TX Panhandle into Northeast NM/southeast CO... With northward extent across the southern High Plains, northward moisture return will remain muted, with dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s F forecast. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates amid strengthening vertical shear. Isolated large hail and gusty winds may accompany thunderstorm activity north of the effective warm front in an upslope flow regime. ...Mid-Atlantic to Lower Great Lakes... Pockets of heating into the afternoon amid mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints, and cold temperatures aloft will support modest destabilization (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region. Enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear values to around 35-45 kt. This should support isolated organized updrafts, with stronger cells having potential for large hail and locally strong gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...FL... A surface cold front will sag south through the period. Furthermore, an east coast sea breeze developing ahead of the cold front appears probable. Strong heating amid mid 60s F dewpoints will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg). Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. While deep-layer flow will be somewhat weak through 700 mb, vertically veering wind profiles will support around 30 kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs in conjunction with a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests isolated hail will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates also will support strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more