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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... Slight adjustments were made to the D1 Elevated and Critical areas in New Mexico to remove Catron and Socorro counties where more recent rainfall has occurred and additional rainfall is possible today. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0677 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041047Z - 041345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado, cannot be ruled out over eastern North Carolina and eventually into far southeast Virginia. DISCUSSION...A line of convection with wind shift continues to push east, now completely out of SC and over eastern NC. Earlier, a 50 kt gust was measured near North Myrtle Beach. In addition to the narrow north-south line of convection, other storms have developed ahead of the line. These storms have shown periodic weak mesocyclones. Other storms continue to show near-severe inbound velocities mainly over the water, but this activity may eventually move inland. The air mass is marginally unstable, but sufficient for isolated severe reports this morning. Low-level SRH with 0-1 km values of 100-150 m2/s2 will continue to favor rotation within the stronger storms, though any tornado risk should remain low-end in nature. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34287759 34747770 35277766 35727769 36237777 36527764 36767746 36937694 37027655 36907623 36587595 36127580 35557602 34707651 34217694 34087732 34287759 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more