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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau. ...New Mexico/West Texas... In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts, increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the evening. ...Florida... A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the east coast, which will also probably influence storm development. Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries. ...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas... East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater destabilization appears likely. Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that can mature within this environment could become modestly organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates. Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of low-end severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level low in the Southwest will begin to weaken on Wednesday. Thereafter, it will make slow eastward progress before becoming a weak cutoff low over the lower Mississippi Valley by the weekend. This upper-level pattern will help push a surface boundary along and offshore of the Gulf Coast. As the weekend progresses, this boundary will move further offshore along with the weak upper low. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will become prominent and remain in place into the following week. Some moderate mid-level winds will likely remain along the Gulf Coast at least until this coming weekend. With some lingering moisture in the coastal regions, its possible that areas of localized severe risk will develop. However, the overall pattern will not be favorable for any areas of organized/predictable severe risk. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more