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WW 219 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 032035Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central into Northeast Maryland Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The Far Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells should pose some threat for severe hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds late this afternoon into the evening. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Baltimore MD to 65 miles southwest of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail, and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably sheared environment. From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability. Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ...Far West Texas... A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible. ...Parts of NV/ID/OR... High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/04/2025 Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW GZH TO 15 NNE AUO TO 45 WNW AND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675 ..MOORE..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-081-087-101-109-113-040140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK LEE MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL GAC011-013-035-063-077-089-113-135-139-145-151-157-171-199-215- 217-231-247-255-263-285-293-297-040140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BUTTS CLAYTON COWETA DEKALB FAYETTE GWINNETT HALL HARRIS HENRY JACKSON LAMAR MERIWETHER MUSCOGEE NEWTON PIKE ROCKDALE SPALDING TALBOT TROUP Read more

MD 0673 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...South Carolina into south-central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032236Z - 040030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will linger within an environment supportive of organized convection for the next couple of hours. Severe thunderstorm coverage and longevity is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Across central SC, scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along the eastern flank of an expanding cold pool deposited by prior convection. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by some guidance - and southeasterly low-level flow is advecting low 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the ongoing convection. This is not only promoting slightly better buoyancy than depicted by guidance and recent mesoanalysis estimates, but is also maintaining a narrow warm sector ahead of the storms. Regional VWPs are sampling modest wind profiles with 0-6 km BWD values around 30 knots, which may promote periodic organization/intensification of ongoing convection with an attendant hail/damaging wind threat. A recent trend of cooling cloud-top temperatures over the past 30 minutes supports the idea that at least a low-end severe threat could materialize in the near term (next 1-2 hours). While sufficient for organized convection, deep-layer shear vectors are largely along the outflow boundary and/or into the residual cold pool. Consequently, this may limit storm longevity/intensity and should modulate the overall severe threat as this activity continues to propagate north/northeast into south-central NC. Additionally, the onset of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours should begin to diminish buoyancy and lead to an overall weakening trend after roughly 00 UTC. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 32958127 33528109 35437991 35757958 35837902 35837873 35727851 35567842 35497841 35247852 33637990 32958055 32808073 32758092 32788111 32958127 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC029-040140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-040140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET WARREN PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-040140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BWI TO 15 N BWI TO 35 NNE BWI TO 25 ESE CXY. ..KERR..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC015-025-040140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CECIL HARFORD PAC071-040140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LANCASTER ANZ530-040140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0672 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...Southern Alabama...the western Florida Panhandle...and far eastern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032159Z - 040000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of an approaching cold front may intensify to severe limits and pose a damaging wind/large hail threat through the early evening hours. Watch issuance is possible if severe thunderstorm coverage sufficiently increases. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have begun developing across southwest AL into far southeastern MS as a cold front continues to push east/southeast into the region. Ahead of the front, broken cloud cover has allow temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s, which based on recent RAP forecast soundings, should be supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg with very limited inhibition. Regional VWPs are sampling somewhat straight hodographs with 0-6 km BWD values of around 40-45 knots, which is supportive of supercells capable of producing large hail (1.0 to 1.75 inches in diameter). However, recent radar trends show widespread new cell development with destructive storm interactions ongoing. This may limit the overall coverage of strong/severe storms. With time, upscale growth/storm interactions along the front should promote clustering with an attendant damaging wind threat across southeast AL and parts of the FL Panhandle. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if the coverage of severe storms continues to increase. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30228807 30418848 30798879 31198877 31648840 32038791 32218722 32328616 32248541 31778509 31468504 31088510 30708551 30478591 30388632 30308711 30218779 30208791 30228807 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0673 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...South Carolina into south-central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032236Z - 040030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will linger within an environment supportive of organized convection for the next couple of hours. Severe thunderstorm coverage and longevity is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Across central SC, scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along the eastern flank of an expanding cold pool deposited by prior convection. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by some guidance - and southeasterly low-level flow is advecting low 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the ongoing convection. This is not only promoting slightly better buoyancy than depicted by guidance and recent mesoanalysis estimates, but is also maintaining a narrow warm sector ahead of the storms. Regional VWPs are sampling modest wind profiles with 0-6 km BWD values around 30 knots, which may promote periodic organization/intensification of ongoing convection with an attendant hail/damaging wind threat. A recent trend of cooling cloud-top temperatures over the past 30 minutes supports the idea that at least a low-end severe threat could materialize in the near term (next 1-2 hours). While sufficient for organized convection, deep-layer shear vectors are largely along the outflow boundary and/or into the residual cold pool. Consequently, this may limit storm longevity/intensity and should modulate the overall severe threat as this activity continues to propagate north/northeast into south-central NC. Additionally, the onset of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours should begin to diminish buoyancy and lead to an overall weakening trend after roughly 00 UTC. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 32958127 33528109 35437991 35757958 35837902 35837873 35727851 35567842 35497841 35247852 33637990 32958055 32808073 32758092 32788111 32958127 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more