National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 082030 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in curved bands on the western side of the circulation during the past several hours. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cosme with the initial intensity set at 40 kt. Cosme will likely continue to strengthen for the next day or two as it remains in an environment of low to moderate wind shear, abundant moisture, and over warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast shows a peak of 60 kt at 24 and 36 hours, and it wouldn't be surprising if Cosme becomes a hurricane during that time frame. By mid-week, however, the storm is expected to move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass, which should cause the system to begin weakening. Cosme is now forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days and dissipate in 4 days. The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt, and that general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. After that time, the interaction with Barbara will likely result in an initial slow down and then turn to the northeast. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance due to the complexity of this interaction. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to account for the initial motion/position and to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 082030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 111.0W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 111.0W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 082030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM COSME... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 111.0W ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 111.0 West. Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A slow down and turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM COSME... As of 21:00 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 the center of Cosme was located near 13.3, -111.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in curved bands on the western side of the circulation during the past several hours. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cosme with the initial intensity set at 40 kt. Cosme will likely continue to strengthen for the next day or two as it remains in an environment of low to moderate wind shear, abundant moisture, and over warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast shows a peak of 60 kt at 24 and 36 hours, and it wouldn't be surprising if Cosme becomes a hurricane during that time frame. By mid-week, however, the storm is expected to move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass, which should cause the system to begin weakening. Cosme is now forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days and dissipate in 4 days. The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt, and that general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. After that time, the interaction with Barbara will likely result in an initial slow down and then turn to the northeast. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance due to the complexity of this interaction. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to account for the initial motion/position and to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 15:22:06 GMT

908
ABPZ20 KNHC 081721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Three-E, and on Tropical Storm Barbara, both
located off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:36:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 15:27:23 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 578 WTPZ42 KNHC 081514 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 Barbara continues to become better organized this morning with deep convection bursting near the low-level center. Earlier AMSR2 microwave imagery depicts improved curved banding with an inner core in the formative stage. This structure has led to an improved satellite depiction and intensification. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to increase this morning, using a blend of these estimates the intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. The system is currently within a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Further strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and this could occur rather quickly given the small inner core of Barbara. The latest NHC intensity forecast has increased slightly form the previous one and shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 12 hrs. However, there are some intensity aids that are a little higher than the NHC forecast, including some explicitly forecasting Rapid Intensification (RI). RI is possible, and this is something we will have to monitor over the succeeding forecasts. After 24-36 hrs, the system will be moving over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment. These factors will cause the system to weaken and eventually struggle to produce convection. Global model infrared simulated satellite images depicts the system losing convection by 72 h. By day 4, the system should degenerate into a remnant low, and dissipate by day 5 as it interacts with the circulation of TD Three-E. Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is near the previous one and lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential for binary interaction between Barbara and TD Three-E. Because of this, the long-range track forecast could be subject to large future adjustments depending on the evolution of TD Three-E. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 15.7N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 081436 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 39(48) 12(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 081436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.1W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.1W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 081436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...BARBARA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 103.1W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 103.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...BARBARA STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Jun 08 the center of Barbara was located near 15.7, -103.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 785 WTPZ43 KNHC 081434 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure well southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico have shown considerable improvement this morning. Well-organized curved bands have been present during the last 6-12 hours with deep convection building near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB came in at 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively. Additionally, overnight satellite-derived wind data showed 30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the low pressure area. Given the improved convective organization and data suggesting maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, Tropical Depression Three-E has now formed with the initial intensity set at 30 kt. The initial motion of Tropical Depression Three-E is set at 310/07 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight, followed by a much more uncertain motion Monday through mid-week due to the expected interaction with Tropical Storm Barbara. This interaction will likely result in a decrease in forward speed and a more northward to northeastward motion on Monday, followed by an increase in forward speed and a shift back to the northwest by Tuesday. The track forecast generally follows the consensus guidance, which is in between the two extremes of the GFS and ECMWF models. Tropical Depression Three-E is forecast to remain in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 27 to 28C and abundant deep layer moisture during the next couple days. This should allow for steady strengthening, and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. By Monday night, the tropical cyclone will begin to move over much cooler water below 26C, and this in combination with the interaction with Barbara should result in rather rapid weakening, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning. The intensity forecast is roughly a split of the statistical and dynamical consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 081433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 41(47) 13(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 081433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DEVELOPS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 110.6W ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 110.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northeast on Monday. A turn back to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is then expected Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DEVELOPS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Jun 08 the center of Three-E was located near 12.6, -110.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 012 WTPZ23 KNHC 081433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little more than 150 miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico have continued to become more organized during the past few
hours. Although the system does not yet appear to have a
well-defined circulation, further development is anticipated and a
tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today
or tonight. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward near
15 mph today, then continue in that general direction at a slightly
slower forward speed through early next week. Locally heavy rains
are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system. For additional information, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
still expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

408
ABPZ20 KNHC 071138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near a
low pressure area located about 150 miles off the coast of
southern Mexico. However, recent satellite data suggest that the
system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this system. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have increased a little, but remain disorganized.
Continued gradual development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi