Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
644
ABPZ20 KNHC 012322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
900
ABPZ20 KNHC 011714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011100
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
580
ABPZ20 KNHC 302321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 9

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 748 WTPZ41 KNHC 302044 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 The satellite presentation of Alvin has gradually degraded today. Alvin is entering an environment of strong south-southwesterly wind shear. Although much of the convection has been pushed off to the north and become elongated, the low-level center still appears to be underneath the southernmost portion of the central dense overcast. A pair of recent ASCAT passes missed the center, but still provided useful information that shows somewhat larger 34-kt radii, so these have been been expanded a bit. The ASCAT data show winds up to 40 kt about 50 n mi east of the center, but there is a good chance that stronger winds are still occurring slightly closer to the center where there was a gap in ASCAT data. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 41-47 kt range. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory since the low-level center has not emerged from underneath the central dense overcast yet, and based on the ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwest, or 335/9 kt. Alvin is forecast to turn northward tonight as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, toward the east side of a mid-level cutoff low located just west of Baja California. Little change is made to the previous NHC track prediction, which lies down the middle of the consensus model envelope. Alvin will continue moving into an increasingly hostile environment of very strong wind shear, dry air, and sea-surface temperatures that will drop below 26C along Alvin's path in about 6 hours. These conditions should lead to Alvin losing its convection on Saturday, which is depicted by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. There are no significant changes to the NHC intensity forecast, and Alvin is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, with dissipation predicted to occur in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 18.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 284 FOPZ11 KNHC 302043 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 9

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 564 WTPZ31 KNHC 302043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Alvin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012025)

1 month 3 weeks ago
...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri May 30 the center of Alvin was located near 18.1, -109.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 9

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 088 WTPZ21 KNHC 302043 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 3 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 29 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located several hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 5

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 808 WTPZ41 KNHC 292033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 Satellite imagery depicts that Alvin has continued to become better organized throughout the day, showing convective banding and a central dense overcast with cold cloud tops near -75C located over the low-level center. An earlier scatterometer pass shows wind speeds around 45 kt. Given the improving convective structure since that pass, and increasing objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity has increased to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 320/10 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward as it is influenced by a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. The storm will remain within a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the next 12 hours or so. Given the latest convective trends and conducive conditions, the peak intensity forecast has increased this cycle to 60 kt. Tomorrow, Alvin will begin to move into a hostile environment with cooler SSTs, higher wind shear, and a drier mid-level airmass which will induce weakening. Latest model derived IR imagery from both the ECMWF and GFS depict the system becoming devoid of convection, and the latest NHC forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h. Thus, there is high confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.1N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mora
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 8 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER MORA/KELLY
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 5

1 month 3 weeks ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 107.2W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northward turn tomorrow and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through early tomorrow, but weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mora
NHC Webmaster
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5 years 9 months ago
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