National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 090235 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.9W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.9 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Jun 08 the center of Barbara was located near 16.5, -104.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 090234 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.9W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.9W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 106.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 15(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 115W 34 2 54(56) 12(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 115W 50 X 13(13) 9(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 799 WTPZ23 KNHC 090234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM COSME... As of 03:00 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 the center of Cosme was located near 13.7, -111.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

979
ABPZ20 KNHC 082313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Cosme, and on Tropical Storm Barbara, both
located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Cosme, and on Tropical Storm Barbara, both
located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Barbara are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:31:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 21:27:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 21:21:57 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:34:34 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 611 FOPZ12 KNHC 082032 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 33(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 267 WTPZ42 KNHC 082032 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Barbara this afternoon, with cold cloud tops near -75 C. However, a dry slot in the eastern semi-circle looks to have slightly disrupted the convective organization. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt this cycle. Using a blend of satellite estimates and the latest imagery the intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Barbara is currently within a favorable environment with warm SSTs and low vertical wind shear. Strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. After 24 h, the system will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures below 26C and into a drier mid-level environment. These factors will cause the storm to weaken and eventually struggle to produce convection. Latest model IR simulated satellite imagery shows the system losing convection by 72 h. This suggests that it will become a a post-tropical remnant low by that time and likely dissipate by day 5 although that could occur sooner than currently forecast. Barbara is moving west-northwestward at 295/10, steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this motion should continue over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly rightward and lies just left of the the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential interaction between Barbara and Cosme. The GFS and ECMWF are on opposite ends of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 407 WTPZ22 KNHC 082031 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.1W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.1W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 408 WTPZ32 KNHC 082031 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...BARBARA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 104.1W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 104.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...BARBARA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Jun 08 the center of Barbara was located near 16.0, -104.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:31:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:31:50 GMT

...BARBARA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Jun 08 the center of Barbara was located near 16.0, -104.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 082030 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 115W 34 1 16(17) 22(39) 8(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI