National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MORA/KELLY

892
ABPZ20 KNHC 272321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico, but the system still lacks a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are favorable
for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the low moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

785
ABPZ20 KNHC 271732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms becoming better
organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system still
lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are
favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the
low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms becoming better
organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system still
lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are
favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the
low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

506
ABPZ20 KNHC 271122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system
currently lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental
conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next
day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

238
ABPZ20 KNHC 270530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. While recent satellite wind
data indicates the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
and more concentrated near a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are favorable for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle portion of the week while the low moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

345
ABPZ20 KNHC 261712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization near a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form near the middle portion of the week while the low
moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near a broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of this week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast
of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of the week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast
of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of the week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

565
ABPZ20 KNHC 252308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue along a broad trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in a few days while it moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue along a broad trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in a few days while it moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

588
ABPZ20 KNHC 251709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico remain disorganized. Conditions appear
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico remain disorganized. Conditions appear
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251127
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of next
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

289
ABPZ20 KNHC 242309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

546
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 23 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen