National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100847 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the past 12 hours or so. The latest current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt range. Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than before, or 310/7 kt. Barbara is forecast to continue moving generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest. Only very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which lies near the various consensus models. The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue moving over progressively colder water over the next day. The cold water will cause Barbara to continue weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with dissipation in 36 hours. The NHC forecast follows the scenario depicted by those models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 100847 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Barbara was located near 19.1, -108.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 181 WTPZ22 KNHC 100846 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS

703
ABPZ20 KNHC 091132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barbara, and on Tropical Storm Cosme, both located in the
eastern Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barbara, and on Tropical Storm Cosme, both located in the
eastern Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cosme are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 09:26:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 09:21:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090846 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 The satellite presentation of Cosme has continued to gradually improve since the previous advisory, with sustained deep convection holding over the low-level center. A timely 09/0524Z ASCAT pass helped with the initial intensity and 34 kt wind radii estimates, with several wind barbs showing 40 to 45 knot winds. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 knots and T2.5/35 knots respectively. Meanwhile, the objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from 40 to 50 knots. The initial intensity has been adjusted up to 45 knots with this advisory package, in line with the most recent ASCAT pass. Cosme is moving toward west-northwest at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Tonight and Tuesday Barbara is forecast to erode the mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme, resulting in a further slowing in motion and a shift to the north. An increase in forward speed and a motion to the north-northeast is expected Tuesday night, with Cosme forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a blend of the consensus guidance. Environmental conditions continue to look conducive for strengthening of Cosme during the next 24 hours or so. Vertical wind shear will lighten up some while the system passes over 27/28C water with abundant deep layer moisture. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, bringing Cosme close to hurricane strength late today or tonight. Beyond 24 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase and mid-level moisture is forecast to decrease, which should lead to a gradual weakening of Cosme. A more rapid weakening is then expected by Wednesday as the system moves over much cooler water, with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 090846 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Barbara has become a bit better organized over the past 6 hours with a large central dense overcast and an increasing area of cloud tops in the -75C to -85C range. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 46-68 kt. Based on the improved banding and cold cloud tops, as well as the persistence of this organization, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory. There is some uncertainty in the initial position since there have been no recent available microwave passes, but the best motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The global models show a strong 500 mb ridge to the north of Barbara, which should help maintain Barbara on a general path toward the west-northwest for the next few days. The GFS model continues to be the fastest and farthest left model. The GFS appears to have a more realistic solution compared to the ECMWF, and was stronger at the initialization time. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster and a bit to the left of the previous official forecast and is in fairly good agreement with an average of the simple and corrected consensus models. Barbara only has about 12 more hours to strengthen before it starts moving into cooler waters. This should be enough time for Barbara to strengthen to a hurricane. The cooler water should cause weakening to begin tonight or on Tuesday. The dynamical hurricane models and global models all show Barbara weakening below tropical storm strength by 48 hours, and the cyclone is likely to lose its convection and become a remnant low around that time. The new NHC forecast shows a faster weakening and quicker dissipation than the previous official forecast since the dynamical guidance is now in good agreement on this scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 353 FOPZ13 KNHC 090846 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 115W 34 7 52(59) 10(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 115W 50 X 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 115W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 354 FOPZ12 KNHC 090846 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 4(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 362 WTPZ32 KNHC 090846 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...BARBARA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 106.0W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 106.0 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Weakening should begin by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through today. This rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...BARBARA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Jun 09 the center of Barbara was located near 16.9, -106.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.