National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 17:31:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:16 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131731 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 1200 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DALILA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 101.8W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 101.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days as the storm moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles (195 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DALILA... As of 12:00 PM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Dalila was located near 14.5, -101.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:16 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 15:22:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131437 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the disturbance south of Mexico has continued to become better organized this morning. First-light visible imagery shows that the system has developed a well-defined low-level center, and infrared imagery shows a large burst of organized deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Thus, the disturbance now meets the requirements to be classified a tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain around 30 kt with a T2.0 from TAFB. Thus, the intensity is held at 30 kt, and the system is now Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial motion remains uncertain given the recent formation of a well-defined low-level center, but it is estimated at 335/9 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and build over Mexico later today, which will cause a more northwestward motion this afternoon and evening, followed by a west-northwestward motion later this weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one, which lies near the simple consensus aids. Along the forecast track, the system will parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico, remaining offshore. As the depression continues to become better organized, steady strengthening is forecast over the next 36-48 h, with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. However, there is some moderate easterly vertical wind shear that the system will have to deal with. As the system took a little longer to consolidate, the latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower, with a peak intensity of 55 kt, which lies near the simple consensus. However, some of the regional hurricane models continue to show a higher peak. Beyond 48 h, the system will cross into a drier, more stable airmass and over cooler SSTs which will lead to steady weakening. Global models show the system struggling to produce convection by 72 h, becoming a remnant low, and then dissipating by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Depression Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The Tropical Depression is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 013 FOPZ14 KNHC 131436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 012 WTPZ34 KNHC 131436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 101.6W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, and a Tropical Storm Watch north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 101.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Four-E was located near 13.9, -101.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 199 WTPZ24 KNHC 131436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 101.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 11:34:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 09:21:39 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 872 WTPZ34 KNHC 131134 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 101.3W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the watch area later today. The Tropical Storm Watch may need to be extended northward later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Four-E was located near 13.4, -101.3 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located in the eastern Pacific basin off
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 09:21:39 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 533 FOPZ14 KNHC 130832 PWSEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN