1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 05:50:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:46 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 05:50:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:22:08 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 140849
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
Dalila has become better organized early this morning, with the
latest satellite images showing well defined convective banding
around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 knots and T3.0/45 knots.
Objective estimates ranged from 34 to 43 knots, while a recent ASCAT
pass showed several wind barbs close to 40 kt. Based on a blend of
these data and taking into account the potential for some
under-sampling in ASCAT, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been increased to 45 knots.
Dalila is heading toward the northwest, or 305/10 knots. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected later today as the system
moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward
the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler
water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through
dissipation Monday night, and this may be generous as Dalila may not
survive that long. The track forecast lies nearly on top of the
previous track and is in close agreement with the latest consensus
guidance.
There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and light to moderate effective easterly shear
today. The forecast calls for some strengthening today, and the peak
intensity was nudged slightly higher to better align with the latest
intensity model trends. Beginning tonight the system will cross the
26C isotherm and over progressively cooler water, and this is
expected to begin the weakening phase with Dalila forecast to become
a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and possibly sooner than
that. The latest intensity forecast close to the middle of the
intensity guidance envelope through the forecast period.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 979
WTPZ34 KNHC 140847
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.9 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel
to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some additional
strengthening is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin
Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
today.
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES... As of 3:00 AM CST Sat Jun 14 the center of Dalila was located near 15.9, -103.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 874
FOPZ14 KNHC 140848
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 105W 34 34 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 10 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MANZANILLO 34 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 18(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 501
WTPZ24 KNHC 140845
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 330SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
...DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 09:00 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 the center of Dalila was located near 15.9, -103.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 05:50:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:22:08 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 140549
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
1200 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
...DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.2 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is
forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is
forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (72 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so.
Weakening should begin by Sunday.
Dalila is a large storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near
the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Beven
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
...DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM CST Sat Jun 14 the center of Dalila was located near 15.6, -103.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140513
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next
day or two near the coast of Central America. Afterward, some
gradual development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:04:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:22:08 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:04:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:04:39 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 23:46:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 21:22:03 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 040
WTPZ44 KNHC 140255
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this
evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep
convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while
the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for
this advisory.
Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as
the system moves along the southern periphery of a building
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered
by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast
to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous
as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has
been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with
the latest consensus model trends.
There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for
around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during
this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to
better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36
hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady
weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest
intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity
guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack
through storm dissipation.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 216
FOPZ14 KNHC 140255
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 21 19(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MANZANILLO 34 15 31(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
L CARDENAS 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/REINHART
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 9 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Subscribe to National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map feed