Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 11a

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151141 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 107.4W ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for coastal southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease later today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the coast of southwestern Mexico this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 11

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 040 WTPZ44 KNHC 150846 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 285/12 knots. A turn toward the west is expected during the next day or so, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler waters. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and is close to the track consensus aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later today as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then likely as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through this morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today while the system moves farther offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 400 FOPZ14 KNHC 150844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 19(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 11

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 634 WTPZ34 KNHC 150844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA MOVING WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 107.2W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 107.2 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves farther offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila has reached its peak intensity and will begin to weaken soon. Steady weakening is then forecast during the next couple of days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease later today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today as Dalila moves westward and farther away from the southwest coast of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 11

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150841 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 80SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....165NE 150SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 107.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 10a

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 1100 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150536 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 1100 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 106.9W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken later tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
315
ABPZ20 KNHC 150533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate multiple surface
circulations associated with a tropical wave located offshore of the
Pacific coast of Costa Rica. The system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of El
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and adjacent offshore
waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward just
offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate multiple surface
circulations associated with a tropical wave located offshore of the
Pacific coast of Costa Rica. The system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of El
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and adjacent offshore
waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward just
offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster
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5 years 9 months ago
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