1 month ago
...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE APPROACHING THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.1, -93.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
416
ABPZ20 KNHC 171137
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific
basin several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170848
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
Satellite imagery shows that the system is gradually becoming
better organized. TAFB determined a Dvorak data T-number of T2.5
which is confirmed from a spiral banding measurement of roughly a
0.5 wrap on enhanced IR images. Therefore, the intensity estimate
is set at 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone is being named.
Based on the latest center fixes, the motion remains 300/10 kt, as
in the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge to the north of the
storm is forecast to weaken a bit by the global models, and this
should result in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a
slower forward speed. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement and similar to the previous model runs. It should
be noted that the complexity of the track moving parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system's
heading will cause substantial differences in where and when the
most significant wind impacts will occur. The official track
forecast is close to the various consensus solutions including the
FSU Superensemble. Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC
track error is a little more than 60 n mi.
Erick is situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment which
appears to be very conducive for strengthening, with low shear,
water temperatures near 29 deg C and mid-tropospheric humidities of
75-80 percent. The official intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one, but some of the numerical guidance shows
even more strengthening than that. Moreover, the various Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices show a significant chance for RI
before landfall. Thus, the NHC forecast for the peak strength of
Erick could be conservative.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erick is expected to strengthen significantly before
reaching the coast of southern Mexico, where a Hurricane Watch is
in effect.
2. Erick will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through this week.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain.
3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the
center crosses the coast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 11.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 170846
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 1(31) X(31)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31)
15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 53(68) X(68) X(68)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29)
ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 39(46) 37(83) X(83) X(83)
P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 43(55) X(55) X(55)
P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) X(28)
P ANGEL 34 1 6( 7) 24(31) 34(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70)
P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21)
P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36)
HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
10N 95W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 95W 34 1 19(20) 18(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45)
15N 95W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SALINA CRUZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P SAN JOSE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 392
WTPZ25 KNHC 170845
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 93.3W
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 93.6W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/GIBBS
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161137
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day
or two while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
877
ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin
a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin
a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 03:22:25 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 657
FOPZ14 KNHC 160233
PWSEP4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 262
WTPZ44 KNHC 160234
TCDEP4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
Dalila is no longer producing organized deep convection and has
become a remnant low. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory
on Dalila. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, based on
recent Dvorak estimates and the UW-CIMSS AIDT.
The remnant low has continued on a west-northwestward heading
during the past few hours, but a turn westward is still expected
tonight. The cyclone will should then continue westward for another
day or so while slowly spinning down over cool waters. Most models
indicate that Dalila will dissipate entirely in about 2 days. The
NHC forecast track for the remnant low has been shifted northward
slightly with this advisory, but otherwise the forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 521
WTPZ24 KNHC 160233
TCMEP4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.2W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DALILA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 522
WTPZ34 KNHC 160233
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west is expected tonight,
followed by continued westward motion for another day or two.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next
couple of days. Dalila is forecast to dissipate late Tuesday or
early Wednesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Dalila. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.6, -109.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin a few
hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 20:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 21:22:25 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 20:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 21:22:23 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 20:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 20:40:11 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 703
FOPZ14 KNHC 152038
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 9 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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