National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 074 WTPZ45 KNHC 172032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Erick has continued to become better organized in visible satellite imagery, with an extended cloud band curling one revolution around the center. However, there is also some evidence of a dry slot filtering into the circulation from the southeast, and possibly as a result, infrared cloud top temperatures in the band are not as cold as they could be. Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, but the initial intensity is held conservatively at 45 kt since objective numbers are closest to the TAFB estimate. The center appears to have turned northwestward (310 degrees) and is moving around 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a mid-/upper-level trough over northern Mexico, should keep Erick on a generally northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, with a gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, and it a little east of the previous prediction. Because of the oblique angle of Erick's track relative to the coast, it is impossible to know exactly where the strongest winds might occur, but it is becoming increasingly likely that they will occur in the area of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero states. Despite the current convective pattern, the environment of low wind shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should still support rapid strengthening. Erick also has the structure to enable rapid intensification, and it may only take mixing out some of the dry air for that process to begin. Rapid intensification (RI) indices fell a little on this forecast cycle, mainly due to a negative contribution from the influx of drier boundary layer air. However, assuming this dry air can mix out, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be near the high end of the guidance (closest to HCCA and HMON), and still shows Erick near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca. A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.9N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 94.4W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... As of 3:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.9, -94.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 13(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 54(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) P MALDONADO 34 1 5( 6) 50(56) 32(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 14(14) 51(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 34 2 44(46) 28(74) 2(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) P ANGEL 50 X 6( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) P ANGEL 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATULCO 34 1 14(15) 21(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) HUATULCO 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 95W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 5 26(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 95W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAPACHULA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 233 WTPZ25 KNHC 172031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 94.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 17:46:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 15:22:33 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 195 WTPZ35 KNHC 171746 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 94.1W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 94.1 West. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...ERICK STRENGTHENING... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.6, -94.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 14:46:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 15:22:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 14:46:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 15:22:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 14:46:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 15:22:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 14:46:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 14:46:54 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 472 WTPZ45 KNHC 171445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Erick's structure continues to show signs of organization, with a partial 0819 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass possibly showing the initial development of an inner core. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective ADT estimate is just over 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. Erick appears to have slowed down a bit and is moving west-northwestward (300 degrees) at 8 kt. The storm is reaching the western extent of a mid-level ridge to the north, with a mid-/upper-level trough located over northern Mexico. These features should cause Erick to turn northwestward later today, with that trajectory continuing for the next 3 days. Speed-wise, the cyclone is likely to move at its slowest (around 6 kt) this evening but then gradually accelerate during the next several days. Although the models are in good agreement on the general track of Erick, the storm's parallel trajectory to the coast of Mexico will play an important role in exactly which areas receive the most significant wind and surge impacts. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged westward, and generally lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. The environment appears ideal for rapid strengthening. Vertical shear is expected to be very low, with the cyclone moving over waters of around 29 degrees Celsius and within a moist mid-level environment of around 80 percent relative humidity. As a result of these conditions, Rapid intensification (RI) indices are rather high, particular for the 36- and 48-hour periods. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring while Erick approaches the coast of southern Mexico, with a 48-hour intensity just below major hurricane strength. Despite this increase in the forecast intensity, there are still a few models (including the normally skillful HCCA aid) that show Erick reaching major hurricane strength, and additional upward adjustments in the forecast could be required later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca. A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 12.3N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg/Mora

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 494 FOPZ15 KNHC 171445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) X(26) X(26) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 22(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 36(44) 26(70) X(70) X(70) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) X(40) X(40) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) P MALDONADO 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 47(79) 8(87) X(87) X(87) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 12(57) X(57) X(57) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) P ANGEL 34 2 18(20) 49(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) P ANGEL 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 6( 6) 32(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 95W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 4 31(35) 11(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 95W 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAPACHULA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 495 WTPZ35 KNHC 171445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OAXACA COAST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 94.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado. A Hurricane Watch has been issued west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued east of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 94.1 West. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Mora

...ERICK FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OAXACA COAST... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.3, -94.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

...ERICK FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OAXACA COAST... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.3, -94.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 937 WTPZ25 KNHC 171443 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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