National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 281 WTPZ25 KNHC 180832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 95.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 05:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 03:22:32 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180553 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 95.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane later today. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Gibbs

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 12:00 AM CST Wed Jun 18 the center of Erick was located near 13.1, -95.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple
of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 02:42:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 03:22:32 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 02:42:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 02:42:00 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Erick is becoming increasingly well-organized. Deep convection has expanded and cooled, with enhanced infrared imagery indicating cloud tops as cold as -85 C near the center. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed an improved inner-core structure, including a developing curved band. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0 and T4.0, respectively, and objective ADT values are approaching T3.5. In addition, just-received synthetic aperture radar data indicate winds near 50 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory to represent a blend of these estimates. Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This slowing in forward speed is consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north, caused by a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across the central United States. This general motion is expected to continue through landfall, with only a gradual increase in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement and continues to show the center of Erick approaching the coast of southern Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours. Although confidence in the overall track is relatively high, small deviations could lead to significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and coastal impacts occur. The official forecast lies near the consensus of the HCCA and TVCE aids and is very close to the previous NHC track. The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several dynamic regional models bring Erick to major hurricane strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure continues overnight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.1N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 13.7N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 14.7N 96.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 794 FOPZ15 KNHC 180239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 11(32) X(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 22(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 45(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) P MALDONADO 34 1 11(12) 69(81) 9(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) 38(39) 20(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 18(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) P ANGEL 34 3 66(69) 11(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) P ANGEL 50 X 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P ANGEL 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 1 31(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HUATULCO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 95W 34 11 20(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 95W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 140 WTPZ35 KNHC 180238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 94.9W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Angel to Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 94.9 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by by early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 9:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 13.1, -94.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 907 WTPZ25 KNHC 180238 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 94.9W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 94.9W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N 95.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 96.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 23:43:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 21:22:26 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 105 WTPZ35 KNHC 172343 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 94.6W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.6 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... As of 6:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.9, -94.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

268
ABPZ20 KNHC 172320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple
of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 20:33:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 21:22:26 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 20:33:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 20:33:53 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 074 WTPZ45 KNHC 172032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Erick has continued to become better organized in visible satellite imagery, with an extended cloud band curling one revolution around the center. However, there is also some evidence of a dry slot filtering into the circulation from the southeast, and possibly as a result, infrared cloud top temperatures in the band are not as cold as they could be. Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, but the initial intensity is held conservatively at 45 kt since objective numbers are closest to the TAFB estimate. The center appears to have turned northwestward (310 degrees) and is moving around 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a mid-/upper-level trough over northern Mexico, should keep Erick on a generally northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, with a gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, and it a little east of the previous prediction. Because of the oblique angle of Erick's track relative to the coast, it is impossible to know exactly where the strongest winds might occur, but it is becoming increasingly likely that they will occur in the area of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero states. Despite the current convective pattern, the environment of low wind shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should still support rapid strengthening. Erick also has the structure to enable rapid intensification, and it may only take mixing out some of the dry air for that process to begin. Rapid intensification (RI) indices fell a little on this forecast cycle, mainly due to a negative contribution from the influx of drier boundary layer air. However, assuming this dry air can mix out, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be near the high end of the guidance (closest to HCCA and HMON), and still shows Erick near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca. A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.9N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 94.4W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg