National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:55:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:52:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 220855 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAHIA KINO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220855 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lorena Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for western mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lorena was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico today before subsiding on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.3, -111.5 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 220854 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220851 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Mario continues to be a fully exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of convection, and is close to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based on ASCAT data. With no models showing any significant re-development of deep convection, slow weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should decay into a remnant low later today. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, adjusted for lower initial winds. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 335/8 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward at a slower pace through 48 hours. The new forecast track is very close to the previous one and the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:50:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:45:36 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 220849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220849 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 111.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 111.3 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or on Monday. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 21.0, -111.3 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 05:45:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:44:31 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOON... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 111.1W ABOUT 15 MI...28 KM W OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next couple of hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are likely occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOON... As of 12:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 27.9, -111.1 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220511
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorena, located over the central Gulf of California, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:55:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:38:04 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220254 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the possibility this is a bit generous. While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear, it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively moist air mass. Thus, the lack of convection is a little surprising. The intensity forecast will show little change in strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst developing near the center during the diurnal maximum. After that time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous forecast. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed by a more northward motion near the 72 h point. Once again, little change was made to the forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220253 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220253 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 110.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 110.8 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later tonight or on Sunday. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 20.3, -110.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.