National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:11:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:45:36 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222109 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Corrected status at 48H (24/1800Z) Mario has maintained its reprieve from discontinuance of advisories, with a few thunderstorms persisting to the west of the low-level center. This continues to barely support tropical cyclone status. Assuming that this convection dissipates soon, the cyclone could degenerate into remnant low by early Monday. The system is likely to dissipate completely in a couple of days. Mario continues to move north-northwestward, or 345 at 9 kt. The cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone and make landfall over the south-central Baja California on Tuesday as a very weak system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 222108 CCA TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CORRECTED STATUS AT 24/1800Z THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:41:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:41:10 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222040 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Mario has maintained its reprieve from discontinuance of advisories, with a few thunderstorms persisting to the west of the low-level center. This continues to barely support tropical cyclone status. Assuming that this convection dissipates soon, the cyclone could degenerate into remnant low by early Monday. The system is likely to dissipate completely in a couple of days. Mario continues to move north-northwestward, or 345 at 9 kt. The cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone and make landfall over the south-central Baja California on Tuesday as a very weak system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 222039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 222039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 112.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 112.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center will move inland over the south-central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario should degenerate into a remnant low later overnight. The low is expected to dissipate by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 22.9, -112.4 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:36:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:39:02 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 Not much can be added to Kiko after nearly 10 days describing the cyclone. It still consists of a tight circulation of low clouds with intermittent bursts of deep convection. Based on Dvorak estimates the initial intensity is kept at 35 kts. Kiko has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit in one of those burst, but the general trend is for Kiko to weaken and become a remnant low as it crosses the end of our domain. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots steered by the subtropical ridge and its associated trades. Kiko will continue swinging south of west and north of due west as the subtropical high pulses during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 222034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 2(21) 1(22) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 222034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KIKO REFUSES TO GO AWAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 133.9W ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 133.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A swinging motion between the west-southwest and the west-northwest is forecast to continue through the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some small fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 2 to 3 days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Avila

...KIKO REFUSES TO GO AWAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Sep 22 the center of Kiko was located near 16.1, -133.9 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 222034 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 133.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Kiko,
located over the far southwestern part of the basin. The National
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression
Lorena which degenerated into a broad area of low pressure over
northwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:45:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:45:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:54:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:38:56 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221452 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 A small area of deep convection has continued to pulsate near the center of Kiko overnight and this morning. The most recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support winds of 35 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Kiko has a small window of opportunity in which to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters and into an environment of lower wind shear within the next 24-36 h. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing SSTs should cause weakening and Kiko is again forecast to become a remnant low by 96 hours. Kiko is moving southwestward at 7 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning for this advisory. Kiko should continue southwestward today, before turning westward, and then northwestward Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough cuts off to the northwest of the cyclone. After Kiko weakens to a remnant low, it should turn southwestward once again as it is steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 16.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221452 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 3 11(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 5(21) 2(23) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221452 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...TENACIOUS KIKO HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 133.5W ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 133.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to continue through tonight, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening could begin late today or tonight, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown