National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario, located near the southwestern coast of
the Baja California peninsula. Advisories are still being issued on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce limited
shower activity. This system is expected to drift northward or
northwestward during the next few days, and significant development
is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico over the weekend. Some slow development is possible
thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form over the central portion of
the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days. Some slight
development is possible later this week while the system moves
generally northward, several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:50:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 15:52:17 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231448 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Mario's quest as a tropical cyclone is over. The low has produced only a few small areas of intermittent convection during the last day or so, but with insufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Mario is now a remnant low and this is the last advisory. The remnant low will move slowly generally northward or north-northwestward for the next day or so as it slowly spins down. It will likely open up into a trough near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 25.0N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 231447 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 ...GAME OVER... ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 114.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 114.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). Mario will likely continue to move generally northward at a slightly slower forward speed for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated through Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...GAME OVER... ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Mario was located near 25.0, -114.3 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 231446 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 114.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:44:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 15:45:51 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Kiko's convection has dramatically increased this morning, and satellite intensity estimates have increased in turn. The initial intensity is back up to 45 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective fixes that range from 40 to 55 kt. Kiko's small size is likely making it particularly susceptible to short-term intensity fluctuations, so it is unclear at this time how long this upward trend will continue. It appears that the tropical storm has a chance to intensify some more today while it is located in a relatively low shear environment and over warm SSTs. However, the global models indicate that strong southwesterly shear will once again affect the cyclone in about 24 h, and weakening is still anticipated from that time onward. The dynamical models all show Kiko becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 72 h, and it could dissipate a couple of days after that. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance at 12 h, but closely follows the intensity consensus through the rest of the forecast period. Kiko appears to have turned west-northwestward and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 285/7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Kiko will move generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next couple of days as the subtropical ridge weakens yet again. Around 72 h, Kiko is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as it is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and closely follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.7N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 135.8W ABOUT 1755 MI...2825 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 135.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Kiko could begin to turn back toward the west in a few days as it weakens. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 15.7, -135.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 135.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 135.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 135.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231105
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west
longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located a a little more than 100 miles west of
the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of
the basin.

A small low pressure system located several hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to drift
northward or northwestward during the next few days, and
significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level
winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230859 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface center. These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical storm status of 35 kt for this advisory. Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind environment. By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8 kt, just south of due west. Kiko is expected to turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone. At the 72 hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest within the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230844 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:44:37 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KIKO MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... ...SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 135.3W ABOUT 1730 MI...2785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 135.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west to west-northwest is expected Monday followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening could begin later tonight or on Monday, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...KIKO MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... ...SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Sep 22 the center of Kiko was located near 15.5, -135.3 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230830 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Mario earned an extra life yesterday but has just about reached its time limit. Satellite images indicate that an earlier burst of deep convection has dissipated, with only a couple of small disorganized blobs left over. If there is no further convective re-development, Mario will likely be declared a remnant low later this morning. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates. The depression is nearing cool waters and a drier, more stable environment. These conditions should be enough to cause Mario to continue to gradually weaken and open up into a trough within a day or so. The latest intensity and track forecasts are based on the consensus guidance, tilted toward the global models which generally do well at this stage of the tropical cyclone life cycle. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 24.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake