National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized
since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is
possible while it moves eastward and then southeastward during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression could still form
before it becomes absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the
coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An elongated trough of low pressure developing near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico is producing several clusters of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to
form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early
next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of
Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend in the far
southwestern part of the east Pacific basin. Some subsequent slow
development is possible into early next week as the low moves
slowly eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
development of this system is possible while it moves eastward and
then southeastward during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could still form before it becomes absorbed by a larger
weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An elongated trough of low pressure is developing near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico and is producing several clusters
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to
form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early
next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of
Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has decreased and become less organized
since the afternoon. Some development of this system is still
possible and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward for the next day or so. The
disturbance is forecast to turn southeastward on Friday and
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the far eastern
portion of the East Pacific basin. This system is expected to move
westward during the next day or two into a region of deep
southwesterly flow south of the southern coast of Mexico. A tropical
depression is subsequently likely to form over the weekend or early
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, this system could cause heavy rainfall
over southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become a little more concentrated this
afternoon. Gradual development of this system is possible during the
next day or so, and a tropical depression could form while it moves
slowly northward. By this weekend, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this system could bring heavy rainfall over southern
and southwestern Mexico this weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has changed little during the past
several hours. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized this
morning. Additional gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next few days. A
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250545
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce limited
showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is
not expected while it slowly moves northward for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A broad area of low pressure several hundred miles south-southwest
of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is generating
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. A tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Storm Kiko, which has moved into the central Pacific basin.
The next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center at 5 PM HST.

A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing limited showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph through Wednesday
and then becomes absorbed within a larger trough on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some development of this system is possible later this week while
it moves slowly northward or northeastward. This system is
likely to be absorbed over the weekend by a larger system that is
expected to develop near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of
hundred miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next
several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along this
trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend
while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be
available on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 20:52:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 21:45:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242051 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 Kiko is now a swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection in the face of 40 kt of southwest shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity was lowered to 35 kt, though ADT and ASCAT passes just coming in suggest this may be a bit generous. Strong southwest shear is expected to continue to prevent the development of persistent deep convection through the forecast period. This will allow the low-level center to turn westward, and then southwestward following the trade wind flow and weaken. The current forecast lies very close to the previous one. Without deep convection, Kiko's wind field should continue to steadily spin down. Kiko will be moving into the central Pacific basin this afternoon and subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 18.0N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242049 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 242048 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KIKO BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 139.6W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 139.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn from west-northwestward to west-southwestward is expected tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, Kiko will move into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by this evening and should then degenerate into a remnant low by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster R Ballard

...KIKO BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Sep 24 the center of Kiko was located near 18.0, -139.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242047 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 139.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 139.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, which will move into the central Pacific basin this
afternoon.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph through Wednesday
and then becomes absorbed within a larger trough on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of
hundred miles of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along this
trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend
while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in
a day or two. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves slowly northward or northeastward. This system is
likely to be absorbed over the weekend by the larger system that is
expected to develop near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:56:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:45:10 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241454 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused Kiko's convection to become displaced from the low-level center by about 70 n mi. A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours, which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone's structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds. The GFS and ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of Kiko's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours in the official forecast. Dissipation is expected by day 4. Kiko's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level ridging to its northeast. However, once it loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours). Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241454 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241453 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 138.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 138.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KIKO WEAKENING... ...FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 138.9W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 138.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A gradual turn from west-northwestward to west-southwestward is expected tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, Kiko will move into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight. It should then degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg