National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230827 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 134.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230823 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:22:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:51:09 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 230819 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230817 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 ...MARIO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 113.5W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 113.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today, before dissipating near the west coast of the central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Mario should gradually weaken and is expected to become a remnant low this morning before dissipating on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...MARIO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Mario was located near 24.3, -113.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230510
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located about 160 miles west of the southwestern
coast of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Kiko,
located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure, located several hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This system is expected to drift northward or
northwestward during the next few days, and significant development
is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:36:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 03:45:11 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 519 WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 There's been little change in Kiko's cloud pattern during the past several hours, and the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged. Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The HFIP HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble intensity guidance indicate that there's still a chance that Kiko could re-strengthen a bit during the next 24 hours as it continues moving over warm oceanic sea surface temperature and in a low shear surrounding environment. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days. Based on a timely 0020 UTC SSMI microwave pass, the initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 240/7 kt, which is a little south of the previous forecast. There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy for this advisory. Kiko should turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the Kiko. Around day 3, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow remnant low, Kiko is forecast to, once again, turn back toward the southwest within the low-level tradewinds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:35:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 03:51:37 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 21 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 135W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 12(22) 1(23) 1(24) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RE-STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 134.5W ABOUT 1680 MI...2705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 134.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west to west-northwest is expected later today followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening could begin later tonight or on Monday, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RE-STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Sep 22 the center of Kiko was located near 15.5, -134.5 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The deep convection that formed earlier today to the west of the center of Mario is gradually decreasing in both intensity and coverage, and the system is likely on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds. Mario is headed for cool waters, and it should be crossing the 26 C isotherm on early Monday. These cool waters and a dry and stable air mass should cause the deep convection to dissipate, and Mario will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours. All of the models show the remnant low opening up into a trough over the central Baja California peninsula in about 2 days. The NHC intensity forecast is based largely on the GFS and ECMWF guidance, and now shows dissipation by 48 hours when the cyclone is forecast to enter a region of strong westerly wind shear. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move north-northwestward at 9 kt. Mario, or its remnants, are expected to move slower to the north-northwest and then the north during the next day or so within the low-level flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is close to the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 23.4N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 112.9W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwest to north motion is expected during the next day or two. The remnants of Mario are expected to move over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low on Monday. The low is expected to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 23.4, -112.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 134.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 134.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 134.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 134.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 230232 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 112.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located about 150 miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Kiko,
located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure located about 400 miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to drift northward or
northwestward during the next few days, and significant development
is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi