National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...KIKO WEAKENING... ...FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Sep 24 the center of Kiko was located near 17.9, -138.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for
significant development while it moves little, and this system is
expected to merge with a larger system to the east in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico late this week where environmental conditions
appear conducive for subsequent development. A tropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system moves near the southern
or the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in
a couple of days. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves erratically northward or northeastward, several
hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:43:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 09:45:16 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the center of Kiko is no longer in the middle of the central dense overcast. Instead, increasing shear has caused the low-level center to be displaced to the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Intensity estimates are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which agrees best with recent 40-45 kt ASCAT data. Kiko is moving northwestward at 9 kt. The storm is expected to turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the west. By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west and eventually south-of-west as the shallower system is steered by the low-level trade winds. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, except adjusted southward on days 2-3. The storm should continue to weaken over the next few days due to persistent south-southwest shear, marginal water temperatures, and a dry mid-level environment. Guidance tonight has accelerated the transition into a non-convective remnant low, with everything now showing post-tropical status by 48 hours. The new forecast is lower than the previous one, following the trend in the models, and could be too slow in showing the storm's demise. Still, Kiko has been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240838 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 1 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO HOPEFULLY ON THE WAY TO ITS FINAL DEMISE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 138.2W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 138.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest then west is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Kiko is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO HOPEFULLY ON THE WAY TO ITS FINAL DEMISE... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 17.5, -138.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 138.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 138.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 137.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 138.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240542
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for
significant development while it moves little, and this system is
expected to merge with a larger system to the east in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico late this week where environmental conditions
appear conducive for subsequent development. A tropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system moves near the southern
or the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninusla in
a couple of days. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves erratically northward or northeastward, several
hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:40:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 03:45:14 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240238 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 20(20) 12(32) 2(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) 20N 140W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240237 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 137.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 137.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -137.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to drift northward or
northwestward during the next few days, and significant development
is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico late this week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form over the central portion of
the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days. Some slight
development is possible later this week while the system moves
generally northward, several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:33:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 21:45:15 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Not only does Kiko refuse to go away, but satellite images indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. Recent microwave images reveal that the inner core of the storm is a little better organized than it was earlier, and accordingly, the latest satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite estimates yield an intensity of about 50 kt. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information about the cyclone's intensity and size later today. Kiko is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west. On Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west or west-southwest as the shallow system moves in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the central Pacific basin in about 36 hours. The tropical storm could strengthen a little more through tonight, but a significant increase in southerly shear and drier air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Tuesday. Kiko is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 6(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 136.5W ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 136.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to occur tonight with that motion continuing on Tuesday. A turn to the west is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 15.9, -136.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.