National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 08:35:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:31:46 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Narda continues to produce very intense deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. However, this convection is not particularly well organized, with the main activity situated in the vicinity of Islas Marias. There is little evidence of banding features at this time. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. The tropical cyclone should move over very warm waters and in an environment of moderate southeasterly shear for the next couple of days. Due to the interaction of the circulation with the nearby land mass of southwestern Mexico, only slight strengthening is anticipated, however. This is consistent with the fact that none of the intensity guidance is very aggressive with the system. It should be noted that the NHC forecast is above practically all of the models. Although the center is not well defined, it appears to still be moving northwestward, or 315/15 kt. Narda is expected to continue moving along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone, with decreasing forward speed for the next day or two. A trough moving into the southwestern U.S. and northern Baja peninsula should cause the track to bend a bit to the right in 2-3 days until the system dissipates near the U.S.-Mexico Border. The official track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous one, and close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 106.4W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 21.5, -106.4 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 05:37:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:31:43 GMT

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300535 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 105.8W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours elsewhere in the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 105.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move near or over the Islas Marias archipelago in a few hours. Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should soon begin in the Islas Marias, and will spread northward over the remainder of the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 21.0, -105.8 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Narda, located near the southwest coast of Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early this week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:31:43 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 My best estimate of Narda's position based on conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with surface observations, is inland near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. There may be other small swirls embedded within a surface trough that lies from the Islas Marias archipelago southeastward to Puerto Vallarta, Narda, and Manzanillo. However, the mid-level circulation center that we have been tracking, which is near ground level in this mountainous region, is the feature that has had the most continuity. A curved band of intense deep convection consisting of cloud tops of -85C to -90C, with isolated overshooting tops to -95C, wraps about half around the center and generally corresponds to 35-kt winds. Due to land interaction, however, the initial intensity is being held just below tropical storm strength or 30 kt. The initial motion is 315/18 kt. A large ridge anchored to the east of Narda is expected to steer the the cyclone northwestward for the next 3 days. This will result in Narda emerging back over the Pacific Ocean in about 6 hours, then passing near or over the Islas Marias islands Monday morning, followed by a track near or just offshore the northwestern coast of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. A second landfall is expected along the coast of Mexico on Wednesday, followed by dissipation Wednesday night or early Thursday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies just a tad to the left of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, which move the center inland in about 24 hours. The intensity forecast remains highly uncertain, and leans toward a consensus of the wind fields in the global models, which show Narda regaining tropical storm status in 6-12 hours as a band of 35-kt winds forms between the center and the mountainous coastline, likely due to funneling/orographic effects. The upper-level environment is forecast to be conducive for additional strengthening when Narda moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of California after 12-18 hours, but land interaction is expected to temper any significant strengthening. Thus, the intensity forecast is flat-lined at 35-kt, although some fluctuations in the intensity is likely. Due to Narda being forecast to regain tropical storm status, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for portions of northwestern Mexico. The primary threat from Narda will continue to be very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.6N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS...MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 105.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 105.2W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Topolobampo, and also for the Islas Marias archipelago. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Topolobampo northward to Guaymas, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours elsewhere in the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 105.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will emerge over the Pacific early Monday and move near or across the Islas Marias archipelago. Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast once the center moves back over the Pacific Ocean, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 20.6, -105.2 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Narda, located inland over
southwestern Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early this week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 21:00:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 21:31:33 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292058 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Narda has become less organized during the past several hours. The primary center has been over the mountains of southwestern Mexico between Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo, and the associated convection has been decreasing. A 17Z ASCAT-C overpass suggests two other vorticity centers are located offshore, one near a cluster of convection to the southwest of Manzanillo and the other to the southwest of Lazaro Cardenas. The scatterometer data showed 35 kt winds southeast of the primary center, and given the decrease in organization since that time it is estimated that Narda has dropped below tropical storm strength. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 315/17 kt, which is faster than in the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward close to the coast of mainland Mexico along the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to turn north-northwestward and move over northwestern mainland Mexico. The track guidance has shifted to the right since the last advisory. However, due to the uncertainty in what will happen to the center, including the possibility it could re-form offshore, the new forecast track will be to the left of the model consensus. The new track will be faster than the previous track based on a combination of the initial motion and faster guidance. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast will follow the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken while over Mexico, and then re-intensify a little when the system emerges over water. However, there remain two alternative scenarios. The first of these is that the circulation dissipates completely as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico. The second is that the center re-forms offshore, either from the vorticity center currently southwest of Manzanillo or, as suggested by some of the global models, from a new center north of Cabo Corrientes. If such a re-formation occurs, this could lead to significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts. The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292056 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN