National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 201440 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 A small burst of convection formed around 12Z, and it's just large enough to hold on to Guillermo as a 30-kt tropical depression. This small area of convection is located in the northeastern quadrant, and it likely won't last long as the cyclone remains embedded in a very dry and stable air mass and over cool 24 C waters. Guillermo should degenerate into a remnant low later today, assuming the deep convection dissipates. The continued influences of dry air and cool waters should cause the weak system to spin down, and it should ultimately dissipate in a few days prior to reaching the Central Pacific basin. The tropical depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A general west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days as Guillermo, or its remnants, remains embedded in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast is just a tad to the north of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 201439 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 201439 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Guillermo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 ...GUILLERMO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 125.0W ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Guillermo was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 125.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Guillermo is expected to become a remnant low later today with dissipation in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...GUILLERMO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 the center of Guillermo was located near 19.2, -125.0 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 201438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201109
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Felicia, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Depression Guillermo, located over
900 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191438 CCA TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 131.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 132.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:38:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:38:30 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 191437 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Guillermo's satellite presentation has continued to deteriorate over the past several hours, although a new, small deep convective burst has developed just to the southeast of the circulation center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a rather elongated (west to east) and ill-defined circulation with fragmented bands in the southeast quadrant. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. Guillermo is moving over cooler (about 25C) water and into a progressively more stable and drier surrounding environment. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate that moderate west-northwesterly shear should also contribute to the cyclone's degeneration to a remnant low on Wednesday night. The intensity forecast now shows Guillermo becoming a remnant low sooner than the previous advisory and conforms with a consensus of the large-scale models and the SHIPS forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt. A subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should influence a generally westward motion through dissipation at day 5. A few of the global models are now showing the lower levels of the ridge building some to the east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands which could induce a west-southwestward motion, or slightly left of due west, around mid-period. The NHC forecast is once again adjusted a bit to the left of the previous one and is based on the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.1N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 18.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 17.9N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 17.9N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 17.9N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 191437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 191437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...GUILLERMO WEAKENS FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 117.8W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 117.8 West. Guillermo is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Guillermo is forecast to become a depression on Tuesday, if not sooner, and degenerate to a remnant low on Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GUILLERMO WEAKENS FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION SOON... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Guillermo was located near 19.1, -117.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 710 WTPZ22 KNHC 191436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 128.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.9N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:35:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:35:59 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central Pacific. Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt, and even that seems generous. The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level air. This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about 40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely cause all of the deep convection to dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the majority of the latest guidance. Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north. The NHC track forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the current forecast, the weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 132.3W ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 132.3 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly faster westward or west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Felicia is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days. Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Felicia was located near 16.3, -132.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Felicia, located over the far southwestern region of the basin, and
on Tropical Storm Guillermo, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 14:53:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 15:22:39 GMT