National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:03:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:31:37 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210900 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. All of the intensity guidance continues to show quick weakening as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and into a drier and slightly more stable environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, except the intensity has been held steady for the next 36 hours due to forecast very low shear conditions by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Despite this most recent slow northward jog, the new NHC guidance still shows Kiko turning westward later today, followed by an unusual wave-like motion as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in strength during the 5-day period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:38:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210859 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210859 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has become quite disorganized tonight. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center is now located well to the east of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current appearance. Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs. Therefore, steady weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt. The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow. The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210859 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 130.3W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 130.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a west-southwestward motion through early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.8, -130.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:44:35 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 012 WTPZ23 KNHC 210858 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 130.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 797 FOPZ14 KNHC 210858 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 36 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210858 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210858 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.3 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210857 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 23 31(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LORETO 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 13(13) 41(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 45(45) 17(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GUAYMAS 50 X 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GUAYMAS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210857 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the warm waters of the Gulf of California. Around the time Lorena made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of 986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane. The satellite appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary images. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt based on the TAFB Dvorak classification. An ASCAT-C pass confirmed that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center. Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have not had a good handle on its future track. The models this cycle have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland Mexico tonight or Sunday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. If this model trend continues, additional shifts to the right might be needed. Based on this change, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of northwestern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and dissipation is likely to occur on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 210857 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO LOS BARRILES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MAINLAND FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210857 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning on Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to Los Barriles. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the mainland from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino and a Tropical Storm Watch from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210557 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NEAR LA VENTANA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 110.1W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located over land near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 110.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently reported sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (139 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). The same automated station in La Ventana reported a minimum pressure of 991 mb (29.96 in). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 05:57:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:44:33 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210550
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorena, located over southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula,
and on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part
of the basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi