National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202347
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane
Lorena, located very near the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 23:46:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 22:06:24 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 202344 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 109.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...95 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 109.5 West. Lorena is now moving toward the northwest at about 5 mph (8 km/h). On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane should move over or near the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... As of 6:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 23.6, -109.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 21:06:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 22:06:24 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 951 WTPZ45 KNHC 202102 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt. However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the center. More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland Mexican coast. For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to to the left, depending on the new track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 202101 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 14(34) X(34) X(34) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 12(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 64 1(65) X(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAN JOSE CABO 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 64 18(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) LA PAZ 50 29 17(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LA PAZ 64 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X 43(43) 21(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) LORETO 50 X 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LORETO 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 20(36) 7(43) X(43) X(43) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 202101 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 109.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from of San Evaristo to Santa Rosalia, and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas. None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 109.3 West. Lorena has been moving little during the past few hours, but the hurricane should begin a northwesterly track tonight. On this track, the core of the hurricane should move along the spine of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 23.2, -109.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 202059 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS. NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:47:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 21:59:58 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202046 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A resumption of northeasterly shear has caused the center of Mario to peak out to the northeast of its convective canopy. This is the second day in row that the low-level center of Mario has become exposed after it developed a low- to mid-level eye in microwave imagery the previous night. ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC showed maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity estimate is still 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling has occurred. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Mario has already peaked and should only weaken from now on. Given how the last few nights have gone, I am not confident that Mario will weaken as quickly as the models suggest, but it does seem likely that steady weakening will begin by tomorrow afternoon, if not sooner. The tropical storm will reach some very cold water by 72 h, and it is forecast to become a remnant low at that time. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but it is above most of the guidance for the first 72 h. The track forecast remains highly uncertain, especially beyond 24 h. The guidance spread is a little lower than it was before, but the run-to-run consistency is still quite low. In general, the models are calling for less binary interaction between Mario and Lorena, with Mario simply lifting northward to north-northeastward in Lorena's wake. As a result, Mario is now forecast by most of the models to move closer to the Baja California peninsula than it was before. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted substantially to the east beyond 24 h accordingly, and there remains a distinct chance that Mario will directly affect portions of the Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:46:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 21:53:31 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 202046 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 30 39(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 110W 50 2 16(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 55 16(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 202046 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 110.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 110.0 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the north or north-northwest is expected tonight and tomorrow. The tropical storm could then turn northwestward late this weekend. On the forecast track, Mario is forecast to move near or west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...MARIO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 18.0, -110.0 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Kiko hasn't changed much over the past 6 hours. Microwave imagery continues to show a fairly well-defined inner-core, but cloud tops have been warming during the past few hours. Satellite-based estimates continue to hover around 50 kt, and the estimated intensity is therefore held at that value. Kiko has turned to the northwest yet again, and should turn westward later today. There is no change in the forecast reasoning. Kiko will likely move on a wave-like path westward for the next several days, losing latitude as a mid-level ridge to the north amplifies, and gaining latitude as the ridge weakens. The only difference in the NHC forecast is that Kiko is forecast to move very slightly faster than it was before. It should be noted that there is still a decent amount of spread in the guidance regarding how quickly Kiko will move west even though the multi-model consensus, which is the basis for the NHC forecast, has not changed much. The tropical storm may have exhausted its opportunity to strengthen now that it has begun to turn back westward, and all of the reliable intensity guidance forecasts that Kiko will slowly weaken. The NHC forecast shows the same, but maintains Kiko as a tropical storm, still over the eastern North Pacific, through day 5. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone, and small short-term fluctuations in intensity are certainly possible during the next few days, but anticipating such fluctuations is beyond the current science of hurricane forecasting. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 17.9N 130.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202045 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 4(28) 1(29) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202044 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 130.8W ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 130.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky