National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:32:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:45:12 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A new, solid burst of deep convection developed over Mario's center a little after 2200 UTC and has persisted since that time. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates went back up to T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was 50-55 kt. As a result, Mario's initial intensity has been brought back up to 55 kt. Mario is essentially being pulled northeastward, or 045/8 kt, toward the circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena. That being said, all the major global models are now in agreement that Mario will not merge with Lorena, and a strengthening mid-level ridge over northern Mexico should force Mario to turn sharply northward and then northwestward during the next 2 days. This northwestward motion is likely to continue for the rest of the 5-day forecast period, with the cyclone's forward speed slowing down on days 4 and 5 as it moves into a weaker steering pattern. This forecast reasoning is not too different from the previous forecast, although the new NHC track has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous one to account for an overall shift in the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the deterministic ECMWF is an outlier and brings Mario to the Baja California peninsula as a weakening storm, but the bulk of that model's ensemble members favor the ocean-ward tracks shown by the other models. These ensemble solutions help to increase our confidence in the NHC track forecast. UW-CIMSS is analyzing about 5 kt of shear over Mario, and given the expanding convective canopy over the center, this could definitely be realistic. The shear could remain low enough for the next day or so to allow for some strengthening, which is shown by a number of the intensity models, and by extension, the NHC forecast. After 24 hours, increasing easterly shear is likely to lead to gradual weakening, with colder waters leading to a dissipation of all convection by day 4, if not sooner. The NHC forecast therefore now shows Mario degenerating into a remnant low on day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 4 66(70) 12(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 110W 50 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 27(43) 5(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and northwest is expected on Friday and Saturday, with the northwestward motion continuing through the weekend. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight or on Friday. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday and continue through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.6, -110.2 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located near the Islas Marias Islands.

Thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
North Pacific remains disorganized. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next day or two while it remains
nearly stationary. Further development is unlikely after that time
as the system interacts with and is possibly absorbed by Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. However, development into a tropical
cyclone during the next five days appears unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 23:31:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:58:23 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 192331 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 107.3W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 107.3 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF LORENA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 6:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 21.9, -107.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:54:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:51:54 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192053 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection. In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB. A significant change to the track forecast was required based on the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days. The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5 days, but confidence in the forecast remains low. For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the first 24 h, given current trends. Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 192053 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 15(15) 51(66) 5(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 7( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 1(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 110.4W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 110.4 West. Mario is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.1, -110.4 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192052 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:51:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:45:12 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds. Since then, convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the tropical storm. ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only 35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt. Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity, little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls for weakening. Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192045 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20(22) 17(39) 5(44) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 3(24) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192045 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 129.3W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 129.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest motion is expected later today through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow re-strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength within the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky