National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 105.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos. The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita * Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slow forward speed should continue Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and tonight, and then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night or Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 20.5, -105.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:45:24 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized in bands to the north and east of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center. The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during that time period. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little change in strength during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with the consensus aids. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is expected later today in response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest of Kiko. A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the cyclone. The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF at 120 h being around 500 n mi. The NHC track forecast remains roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the consensus aids. Regardless of the details, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the east Pacific basin for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 804 WTPZ33 KNHC 191447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 128.7W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwest motion is expected later today through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.0, -128.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 5(19) 3(22) 1(23) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 35(54) 7(61) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 6(27) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 11:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:58:20 GMT

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191155 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area this morning, and then move back over water this afternoon. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west- central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water again, re-strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area through this afternoon. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning as early Friday night or Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 20.2, -105.4 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific continues to produce a few
disorganized thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next day or two while the system moves little.
Further development is unlikely after that time as the system
interacts with and is possibly absorbed by Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:56:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:58:20 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:52:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:51:51 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Deep convection has persisted around the center of Mario over the past several hours. However, the improved appearance of the cyclone has not yet resulted in an increase in surface wind speeds, as confirmed by an ASCAT overpass a few hours ago. The initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt and this is in agreement with the latest objective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. With the recent increase in organized convection, Mario is likely starting a phase of intensification while over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. However, this strengthening should be limited due to northeasterly shear being aided by outflow from Hurricane Lorena near the Mexico coast. After 36 hours, Mario is forecast to begin moving into a drier and more stable atmospheric environment while still undergoing shear from nearby Lorena. This should cause a gradual weakening trend through 96 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters in the same hostile environment, which should cause it to degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is near the previous one and is on the higher end of the consensus aids. Mario has turned to the north and the initial motion is now 355/6 kt. The combination of weak steering currents, and a possible subtle interaction between Mario's and Lorena's circulation should induce a slow north to north-northeast motion over the next couple of days. After that time, mid-level ridging is expected to develop over northern Mexico which should cause Mario to turn northwestward with an increase in forward speed. The official forecast is near the ECMWF and lies just a little to the right of the previous forecast through the first few days, and very near it thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:51:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:45:08 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 10(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 13(13) 36(49) 19(68) 10(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 1(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 13(18) 6(24) X(24) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 111.9W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.9 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strenthening is anticipated and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Some slow weakening is expected after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 15.9, -111.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.