National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182051 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ASCAT data, including from the new ASCAT-C instrument, was very helpful in analyzing the location, size, and intensity of Mario this afternoon. The tropical storm has contracted substantially, and earlier microwave data suggested that it had developed a mid-level eye-like feature. Since that time, it appears that moderate easterly wind shear, associated at least in part with outflow with Mario's larger sibling (Lorena) to the east, has prevented the tropical storm from strengthening at a faster rate. The intensity is nonetheless increased to 55 kt, and this could be conservative given that the ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 50-55 kt. The track and intensity of Mario will depend largely on what happens with Lorena. If Lorena moves inland and weakens, Mario will likely be located within a very favorable environment for intensification. However, if Lorena stays offshore and strengthens (like shown in the latest NHC forecast), it will likely continue to negatively affect Mario for the next several days. Lorena's forecast may become more clear later tonight, but until then the Mario intensity forecast is, and will likely continue to be, highly uncertain. The NHC forecast is slightly above the intensity consensus, but is still well within the intensity model spread. Mario continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. Most of the global models forecast that Mario will meander generally northward to northwestward for the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. After that, if Lorena survives its brush with Mexico and strengthens near the Baja California peninsula, there is a chance that Mario could turn abruptly eastward as it interacts with the other cyclone. That said, most of the global models show no such interaction occuring, and instead show Mario continuing broadly northward through day 5. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of the guidance northward for now, but it should be noted that uncertainty in the track forecast is still high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182050 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO SHRINKS BUT WINDS INCREASE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 111.8W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 111.8 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed by tomorrow. Mario is forecast to then slow down and meander slowly northward on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...MARIO SHRINKS BUT WINDS INCREASE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 15.0, -111.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182050 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko has apparently continued to strengthen. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were all 55 kt, so the intensity is raised to that value. At least slow additional strengthening is possible during the next few days. Wind shear that previously affected the cyclone seems to have decreased, and Kiko is far enough south that it should remain over fairly warm waters for the next couple of days. The HWRF and HMON models were not available for this forecast, but previous runs showed the potential for possibly significant strengthening during the next couple of days. On the other hand, the statistical guidance is much lower. Without any new dynamical intensity guidance available, it seems wise to make no large changes to the intensity forecast this cycle, but it is slightly higher in the short term to account for the higher initial intensity. In general, the NHC forecast is a little above the intensity guidance at all forecast hours. The initial motion is 250/6 kt, but the tropical storm is still forecast to turn westward within the next few hours. Kiko is still expected to snake its way westward during the next 5 days as a mid-level ridge to the north builds, weakens, and then builds again. The global models all show this general scenario and vary mainly in the forward speed of the cyclone. Very little change was made to the NHC forecast, which is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182049 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 1 21(22) 27(49) 6(55) 5(60) 2(62) 1(63) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 3(20) X(20) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 35(42) 19(61) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:49:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:58:33 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182048 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in banding around the center of Lorena this afternoon. Bands now wrap completely around the center, but there have been no recent microwave images to see if an eye has developed. The increase in organization has led to higher objective satellite intensity from UW/CIMSS, and a blend of the SAB and ADT estimates yields an initial intensity of 60 kt. Additional strengthening is likely, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane tonight while it moves over warm water with low shear conditions. The storm is predicted to move very close to or over the southwestern coast of Mexico later tonight and early Thursday, and the remainder of the intensity forecast will depend on how much land interaction occurs and the eventual structure of the storm afterward. If Lorena moves to the right of the official forecast, more significant weakening is likely and the storm would struggle to re-strengthen later in the period. The new NHC track forecast shows slightly less interaction of the core of the cyclone with land, and assumes Lorena will be able to continue strengthening while the shear remains low and it moves over very warm waters southeast of the Baja California peninsula. Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. The track guidance remains about the same as before, with the ECMWF taking the center inland over southwestern Mexico while most of the remainder of the guidance keeps it just offshore. The NHC forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory through 24 hours, but continues to show the center passing very close to southwestern Mexico. After that time, a narrow mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of Lorena, and this should lead to a west-northwestward motion with Lorena passing near or just south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus. Due the potential for land interaction within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect and preparations to protect life in property should be rushed to completion. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight and Thursday. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required tonight or Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.9N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 182048 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182048 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 127.3W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 127.3 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward track is expected later this afternoon or evening, followed by a west-northwest motion on Thursday and Friday. Kiko is then forecast to turn westward once again by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane again on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 15.8, -127.3 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 182048 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 18(24) 45(69) 4(73) X(73) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 3(35) 1(36) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 34(43) 4(47) X(47) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 9(30) X(30) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 32(33) 34(67) 7(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 34 4 30(34) 6(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) P VALLARTA 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 78 5(83) 1(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 41 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 86 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MANZANILLO 50 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 23(34) 20(54) 2(56) X(56) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 3(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.. ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 104.4W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 104.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area within the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area in the next few hours, and will spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.. ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 17.9, -104.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 182045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 104.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181756
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located about a hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends several
hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next
week while moving westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181745 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 17.6, -104.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 17:45:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:58:29 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181452 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Lorena's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands wrapping around the circulation. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Lorena is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorena's intensity will depend on how much interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs. After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction. Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track. Recent microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt. Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern portion of mid-level ridge. The overall track envelope has nudged eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico. In fact, the ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a distinct possibility. The early portion of the NHC track has been nudged eastward, and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model track and the various consensus aids. After 24 hours, most of the guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. During this portion of the track forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations to protect life in property should be rushed to completion. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown