National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:38:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:58:29 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181437 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 39(47) 7(54) 1(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 22(25) 5(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 9(10) 32(42) 22(64) 6(70) X(70) X(70) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 34 X 24(24) 17(41) 3(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) P VALLARTA 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 21 59(80) 2(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 3 30(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 68 22(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MANZANILLO 50 18 26(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 64 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 17(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 103.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 103.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 17.4, -103.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 181437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:34:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:51:53 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has become better defined overnight. Both GPM and SSMI overpasses reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned with the low-level center. This places the center well within the convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery. Based on this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate and UW/CIMSS ADT. Mario has managed to fight off moderate northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is forecast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24 hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow weakening. Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it northwestward during the next day or so. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena, with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast and north of Mario. For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more uncertain than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:33:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:45:10 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 991 FOPZ14 KNHC 181432 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 28 3(31) 3(34) 2(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 1(22) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 10(26) 14(40) 6(46) X(46) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) 18(23) 17(40) 14(54) 9(63) 1(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 2(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 15N 115W 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 6(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 14(26) 19(45) 8(53) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 111.0W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 111.0 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly stationary from early Friday through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...MARIO STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 14.5, -111.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko appears to be stronger this morning with very deep convection near the center, although the cloud pattern is somewhat distorted. The initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 50 kt on this advisory, since the subjective satellite estimates have been running a little hot recently. The storm continues to move west-southwest, or 245/05 kt. A track resembling on roller coaster (which seems appropriate for the ups and downs trying to forecast Kiko this past week) is anticipated during the next several days due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The guidance is actually in pretty good agreement on this unusual track, so little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Kiko is expected to remain in a low-shear and marginally warm-water environment for the next few days. After that time, some dry air entrainment and a possible increase in shear could level off the intensity. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, adjusted for the higher initial wind speed, but this is a fairly low confidence forecast at long range due to some large changes in the guidance at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 16.0N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 16(47) 8(55) 2(57) 1(58) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 4(20) X(20) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 29(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 126.7W ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 126.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward track is likely later today, followed by a west-northwest motion on Thursday and Friday, and a westward motion on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko could become a hurricane again on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 16.0, -126.7 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181157 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 103.1W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the warning area later today or tonight, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 16.3, -103.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 11:57:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 10:16:21 GMT