National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180843 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 15.6, -102.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 05:40:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:58:34 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, on Tropical Storm
Mario, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lorena,
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,
Mexico.

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends several
hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while moving
westward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible along
the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Public Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:59:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:58:34 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180258 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 There has been little change in the cloud structure of Lorena since the last advisory, with the storm having a central convective feature and a ragged band in the western semicircle. A recently- received WindSat overpass indicates the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of the central convection. The initial intensity remains 45 kt in good agreement with a subjective satellite estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 305/13. A mid- to upper-level ridge over Mexico should steer Lorena generally northwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the forecast period, with the center likely to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday through Thursday. The guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track keeps the center of Lorena a little farther offshore than than the previous forecast. However, any motion to the right of the track would bring the center onshore in southwestern Mexico and cause rapid dissipation. If the center stays offshore, Lorena is forecast to be near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by the end of the forecast period. Conditions appear favorable for slow strengthening as Lorena approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on the forecast track now staying offshore, the new intensity forecast calls for a stronger storm by 48-72 h, with Lorena now forecast to be just under hurricane strength. This peak would be followed by a weakening trend as Lorena gradually moves over cooler water. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.1N 102.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180257 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 7(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 28(37) 5(42) X(42) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 15(37) 4(41) 1(42) X(42) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 1 14(15) 37(52) 10(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 3 8(11) 2(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15(26) 2(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180257 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LORENA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 15.1, -102.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180257 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 102.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:51:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:45:25 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180250 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Kiko's convection has lacked some shape during the past few hours, with two main bursts observed near the center. Although subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 (55 kt), ADT and SATCON estimates, as well as the afternoon ASCAT data, indicate that Kiko's winds are much weaker than that. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt as a compromise of all the available estimates, and even that could be generous. Kiko's future track looks like a roller coaster, with successive dips and rises in latitude resulting from cyclical strengthening and weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north. Although all of the models depict this general pattern, there is some model speed divergence after 36 hours. In the end, however, the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it's close to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Kiko has re-entered a zone of low shear, and it will soon be leaving an area of relatively low oceanic heat content. It may take a little time for the cyclone to feed off these better environmental conditions, but re-strengthening is anticipated to begin by 36 hours and continue for much of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is just a little higher than the previous one, although it's not near the high end of the guidance envelope. Additional increases in the forecast peak intensity are possible in subsequent advisories if the higher-intensity models, including HCCA, don't come back down. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180250 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 19(40) 7(47) 4(51) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) 11(26) 2(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 29(36) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180249 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180249 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 125.5W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), but it is expected to turn toward the west-southwest and west by Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Strengthening is anticipated to begin by late Wednesday, and Kiko could become a hurricane by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Kiko was located near 16.7, -125.5 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:47:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:52:00 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180246 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 4 8(12) 1(13) 2(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 3(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 21(38) 15(53) 11(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 8(26) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 14(29) 9(38) 2(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 14(26) 16(42) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180246 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Mario's center was partially exposed after the release of the previous advisory, but it is now covered by a new convective burst. The convection itself remains somewhat lopsided, favoring the southwestern quadrant due to strong upper-level easterly winds emanating away from the larger Tropical Storm Lorena to the east. Since subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-40 kt, the initial intensity remains 35 kt on this advisory. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 325/8 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should keep the cyclone on its northwestward trajectory for the next 2 days, but since the ridge retreats eastward a bit, Mario's forward motion is expected to decrease significantly during that time. By day 3, Mario and Lorena may get close enough to one another to cause Mario to almost stall. After day 3, Mario's track will mostly depend on Lorena's future, and there is significant model spread on days 4 and 5. The GFS has a stronger Lorena moving up near the Baja California peninsula, which pulls Mario farther toward the north and east. The ECMWF, on the other hand, dissipates Lorena near west-central Mexico, which allows Mario continue on a northwestward heading. For now, the official forecast splits the difference and closely follows the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over Mario during the next day or two, so only gradual strengthening is expected during that time. Vertical shear may decrease around the time that Mario stalls, and at that point the system is forecast to become a hurricane. Some weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period due to an increase in shear. The updated NHC intensity forecast is only slightly lower than the previous one based on the latest guidance. It should be noted that there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this forecast since it is not known how much Mario and Lorena will interact in the coming days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.2N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg