National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:51:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:45:08 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 10(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 13(13) 36(49) 19(68) 10(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 1(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 13(18) 6(24) X(24) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 111.9W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.9 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strenthening is anticipated and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Some slow weakening is expected after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 15.9, -111.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 12(13) 6(19) 4(23) 5(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10(13) 39(52) 10(62) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 7(25) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190849 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor satellite imagery as well as satellite-derived winds indicate that there is some southwesterly shear undercutting Kiko tonight, with a large upper level trough digging several hundred miles to the northwest of the cyclone. This flow is likely feeding some dry air into the system, and these factors could explain why Kiko has not been intensifying recently. The objective Dvorak estimate from TAFB as well as subjective intensity estimates suggest that the initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt. Despite the forecast for shear to be generally relaxed, Kiko will have to overcome dry and stable air to its north and west that may keep entraining into the cyclone's circulation in the coming days. The majority of the intensity guidance only show some slight strengthening over the next several days. And, due to the mixed positive and negative signals for intensification, the official forecast agrees with this scenario and gradually brings Kiko to hurricane strength in about 36 hours, and intensifies it just a little more after that time. The official forecast intensity is very near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The initial motion is westward at 5 kt. A developing weakness in the ridge to the northwest of Kiko will allow for a west-northwest to northwest motion over the next couple of days. Ridging will rebuild to the northwest of Kiko after that time, which will induce a west-southwestward motion. Late in the forecast period, that ridge will weaken, resulting in a turn back to the northwest. The main change to the official forecast track was to nudge it a little to the right, as the well performing ECMWF has shifted quite a bit northward on the latest run. The official forecast now lies on the southern edge of the clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 128.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 128.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 128.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected tonight through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may re-gain hurricane strength by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 15.9, -128.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190843 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65 kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and these winds are limited to a very small area near the center. Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest. Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will continue as a separate system through five days. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula and others to the east. The NHC forecast follows the previous one, and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the peninsula. This forecast is highly uncertain at this time. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern Mexico today. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction currently occuring. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190842 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 2(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 48(70) 9(79) 1(80) X(80) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 9(51) 1(52) X(52) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 21(31) 4(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 1(17) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 69(75) 8(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 37(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 46 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P VALLARTA 50 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 18(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 105.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area today and move back over water later today or Friday. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water again in 12 to 24 hours, re-strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within portions of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur today within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.6, -105.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190841 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 105.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190540 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- With the help of Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, at 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 104.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, if the center deviates a little to the right and interacts with the high terrain, weakening could then occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located near Manzanillo reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) when the center of Lorena moved nearby. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur on Thursday within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.3, -104.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 05:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:58:26 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific is producing limited and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while the system
moves little. Thereafter, the system is expected to be absorbed by
the circulation of Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT