National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211459 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide a better assessment of Lorena's winds. Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211459 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 110.6W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warnings for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula and replaced it with a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. The government of Mexico also adjusted the watches and warnings for mainland Mexico and a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 25.6, -110.6 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211457 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ALSO ADJUSTED THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 110.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:55:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:38:13 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:55:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:31:44 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211453 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is very close to the previous advisory. It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today, which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days, but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211452 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) 8(43) 1(44) X(44) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211452 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO TURNS WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS ENDURING TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 131.1W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 131.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is expected to begin later today, and this general motion should continue through Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...KIKO TURNS WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS ENDURING TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.4, -131.1 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211452 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.5W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Socorro Island has recently reported a wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...MARIO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 31 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Geostationary satellite imagery shows the low-level center of Mario is exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass, which is the result of strong northeasterly shear. An average of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, and UW-CIMSS SATCON yields an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Hopefully, ASCAT data will provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity later today. The vertical shear over Mario is forecast to remain moderate to strong during the next 24 hours while Mario heads toward cooler waters. This should result in gradual weakening. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease but the system will be moving into a more stable air mass and reach the 26C isotherm by 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast and Mario is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. Mario is progressing slowly north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 4 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on a northwesterly track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As Mario weakens, it should turn northward and slow down with the low-level steering flow. The latest consensus aids were a little west of the previous track, so the latest official forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 211447 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorena, located near the southeastern coast of the Baja California
peninsula, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 11:42:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:44:35 GMT

Issued at 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211141 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 110.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all the watches and warnings for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 110.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Lorena is a small cyclone and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 6:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 25.0, -110.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.