National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 11:49:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 09:24:47 GMT

978
ABNT20 KNHC 281125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The National
Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Erin,
located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 08:49:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 09:24:47 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280848 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now more established on the north side of the circulation. The flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm, and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50 kt. The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm. Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days, taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected to change as the models show a ridge building over the western Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic. Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time. The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one, especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the time it nears the southeast U.S. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week. 3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 280848 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 31(41) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 37(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 38(65) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 37(50) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 33(61) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 26(51) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 19(61) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 6(37) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 11(32) 1(33) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 8 73(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JUAN PR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 89 7(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) VIEQUES PR 50 54 19(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) VIEQUES PR 64 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 86 5(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAINT THOMAS 50 16 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT THOMAS 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT CROIX 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280848 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 63.9W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Dorian is then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Western Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Kitts to Anguilla...1 to 4 inches. Southern and Eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northwestern Puerto Rico...1 to 4 inches. Haiti and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches Southern Bahamas...1 to 4 inches. Northern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches. Florida Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DORIAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 16.8, -63.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280847 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 63.9W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 63.9W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 63.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 08:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 09:31:47 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280832 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery and recent microwave overpasses show that Erin's surface center has once again become exposed to the north of a rather amorphous deep convective mass. Erin's severely tilted structure is in response to persistent moderate west-northwesterly shear, indicated in the UW-CIMSS shear product. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. A series of microwave images during the past several hours indicate that the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/5 kt, within the mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching the northeastern United States, and the Bermuda high to east-southeast. A turn toward the north while accelerating is forecast later today and Erin is expected to reach Nova Scotia, with a north-northeastward heading, by the end of the week. Only a minor adjustment, a bit slower than the previous advisory, was made in order to hedge closer to the TVCA multi-model consensus. Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show that the shear should diminish somewhat today while the system remains over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. This, should allow for some slight strengthening at that time. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough and significantly decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause Erin to acquire extratropical characteristics, and complete the transition in 36 hours, as the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast and global models unanimously predict. Minor adjustments were made to the forecast wind radii based on the RVCN consensus radii model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 32.4N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 36.6N 70.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 40.7N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 45.3N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 280831 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280831 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 72.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 72.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.6N 70.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.7N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 45.3N 63.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280831 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 72.4W ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 72.4 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn northward later today then north-northeastward early Thursday morning with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but then gradually weaken Thursday as it completes a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...ERIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 32.5, -72.4 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280532 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 63.4W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Dorian is then forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas by Thursday night, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 16.3, -63.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 05:32:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 03:24:47 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280506
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located over the far eastern Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Erin, located about 300 miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 02:52:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 03:24:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280250 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian is yet to strengthen, and the initial intensity remains near 45 kt. The storm's cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking with no clear convective banding features. Since the storm has strong upper-level outflow over the western semicircle of the circulation and vertical shear should remain low for the next day or two, strengthening is still forecast before Dorian reaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is likely by 24 hours due to the interaction of the circulation with Puerto Rico. The intensity forecast in 3-5 days remains problematic because of a significant spread in the model guidance and some run-to-run inconsistencies. The official intensity forecast has been increased in comparison to the previous ones. However, it is now near the low end of the numerical guidance suite. Dorian has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 310/11 kt. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone will be headed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In 3-4 days, the global models show the ridge rebuilding somewhat over the western Atlantic. This scenario should cause Dorian to turn toward the left later in the forecast period. The official forecast has been shifted to the north of the previous one. This is in close agreement with the ECMWF model track, but south and southwest of the latest simple and corrected consensus predictions. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week. 3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance. storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch