National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 006 FONT15 KNHC 280250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 42(57) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 35(53) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 25(42) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 20(51) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) X(33) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE PR 34 X 29(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PONCE PR 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 19(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 74(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN PR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 3 85(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) VIEQUES PR 50 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 51(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 54 38(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAINT CROIX 50 8 34(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SAINT CROIX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280249 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 68.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.1N 69.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.3N 72.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.4N 76.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.8N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 63.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280249 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Samana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea overnight, pass over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday night, and near or to the east of the central Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 16.0, -63.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 02:44:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 03:31:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280239 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 Over the past several hours, the deep convection associated with the cyclone has been developing progressively closer to the center of circulation. And, at the time of this advisory the convection is now covering a portion of the previously exposed low-level center. A late morning scatterometer pass showed winds just over 30 kt over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Since that time, the improved convective pattern has resulted in an increase in the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, indicating an initial intensity of 35 kt. Erin is still undergoing northerly shear, but possibly a little less now than it had been battling for the past couple of days. Little change in environmental conditions are expected over the next 36 hours, so some slight strengthening could occur during that time. After 24 hours, Erin will begin to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. This should cause the storm to gradually acquire extratropical characteristics, and by 48 hours Erin is expected to have completed extratropical transition. Erin continues to meander, with an initial motion of 270/3 kt. The approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to induce a northward motion of Erin tonight and then accelerate the storm to the northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the official forecast is close to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. On this track, Erin will remain well offshore of the United States coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 31.9N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 33.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 36.0N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 39.4N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 43.7N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 280238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) X(30) X(30) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 72.1W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 72.1 West. Erin is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is expected to begin moving northward tonight and northeastward Wednesday and Wednesday night with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, but then it should begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday through Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Erin was located near 31.9, -72.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280238 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 72.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 72.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.1N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.0N 71.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.4N 68.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 72.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 00:31:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 21:24:43 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280000 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Corrected forecaster name ...DORIAN HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 62.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 62.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DORIAN HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 15.8, -62.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272307
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located over the far eastern Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located almost 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 272100 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Dorian's convective pattern has continued to fluctuate this afternoon due to some interaction with the Windward and Leeward Islands, but mainly due to intrusions of very dry mid-level air. A 10-mile wide eye feature developed in Martinique and Guadeloupe radar data between 1500-1600 UTC and again between 1700-1800 UTC. But this feature had been short-lived due to erosion of the inner-core convection caused by dry air entrainment, although a recent burst of deep convection has developed near and over the low-level center. Dorian's upper-level outflow has continued to expand and is very symmetrical. The initial intensity has been maintained at 45 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface wind data. Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or 300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models, which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than- normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week. 3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains higher than usual due to the potential for Dorian's interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to weaken the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 20:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 21:24:43 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 272038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 25(44) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 7(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) 1(35) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 X 51(51) 19(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PONCE PR 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 13(13) 44(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 36(36) 18(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 1 55(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) VIEQUES PR 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 17(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 34 1 50(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT CROIX 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AVES 50 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 62.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF DOMINICA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), data from the Guadeloupe radar indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 15.3, -62.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 272037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 62.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART