National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291445 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 67.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 67.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 66.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 67.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located about 400 miles east-southeast of the southeastern
Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin, located more than 200 miles
east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 08:44:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 09:24:49 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290843 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said, the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory. Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48 hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles, continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches Florida. Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to maintain that status until it reaches land. Key Messages: 1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 290843 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 19(33) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 20(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 21(38) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 28(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 26(64) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 31(63) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 30(74) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 25(44) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 57(70) 17(87) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 20(57) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 15(34) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 23(79) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 22(51) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 58(77) 13(90) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 17(64) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 15(41) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 56(76) 11(87) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 15(57) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 12(36) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 49(64) 13(77) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 12(43) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 17(60) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 16(51) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 15(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 16(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 27(56) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 31(63) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 36(64) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 36(66) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 34(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 38(86) 4(90) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 44(59) 5(64) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 5(43) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 18(61) 2(63) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 2(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 12(32) 4(36) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 1(25) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 21(36) 3(39) 1(40) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290842 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 66.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into early next week: The central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...DORIAN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 29 the center of Dorian was located near 20.5, -66.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 08:41:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 09:31:50 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290840 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Erin is merging with a frontal system and is now an extratropical low. The low is expected to accelerate northeastward toward Nova Scotia over the next 24 h, and some slight intensification is expected during that time. After 24 h, the system is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada. This is the last advisory on Erin from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 36.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 29/1800Z 39.3N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0600Z 44.3N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 290839 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONCTON NB 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290839 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 ...ERIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 71.6W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward motion are expected later today, with this motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen a little on Friday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Beven

...ERIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 the center of Erin was located near 36.1, -71.6 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290839 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 39.3N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.3N 64.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 71.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290508
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located about a hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, and on
Tropical Depression Erin, located a couple of hundred miles east of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 02:41:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 03:24:43 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 290239 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 22(49) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 28(45) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 34(56) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 31(68) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 37(66) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 34(75) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 29(46) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 59(67) 18(85) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 22(55) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 27(79) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 24(49) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 15(86) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 19(57) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 55(65) 14(79) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 13(46) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 43(52) 13(65) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 16(47) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 14(40) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 13(32) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 26(48) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 31(55) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 36(58) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 40(66) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 39(63) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 48(79) 5(84) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) 5(53) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 20(50) 3(53) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) 3(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 1(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 23(32) 4(36) X(36) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290239 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29 deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model output. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt. Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 02:39:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 03:31:40 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290239 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH