National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

658
ABNT20 KNHC 300551
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa.
Some development of this system is possible early next week over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300256 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful information about what has changed during the past several hours. They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds). These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory. The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday, and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days, along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission, which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day. As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued on Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 02:55:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Aug 2019 03:24:35 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND A STRENGTHENING DORIAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 68.4W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of this area on Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 68.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter data is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into early next week: The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND A STRENGTHENING DORIAN... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 29 the center of Dorian was located near 23.3, -68.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 300254 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 17(37) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 16(30) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 21(41) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 20(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 24(56) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 22(68) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 18(35) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 35(74) 11(85) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 15(49) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 11(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 36(58) 17(75) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 15(43) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 33(84) 8(92) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 36(53) 13(66) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 13(45) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 53(57) 30(87) 7(94) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 40(61) 12(73) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 12(50) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 32(83) 7(90) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 33(50) 13(63) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 11(41) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 38(62) 14(76) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 13(46) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 35(54) 15(69) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 11(38) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) 13(54) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 9(24) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 14(44) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 23(67) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 17(33) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 24(70) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 21(38) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 28(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 27(61) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 26(50) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 75(85) 10(95) 2(97) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 20(76) 3(79) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 23(55) 4(59) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 50(69) 6(75) 3(78) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 7(40) 2(42) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) 2(24) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 27(35) 10(45) 4(49) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 2(15) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 12(23) 5(28) 1(29) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 18(31) 8(39) 2(41) 1(42) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300253 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 68.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 68.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 68.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located a few hundred miles east of the southeastern
Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292047 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 There has been little overall change in the structure of Dorian today. The hurricane has several well-defined bands of convection wrapping into the center and a small central dense overcast. The small eye has not been as apparent in geostationary satellite imagery this afternoon, but the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported concentric eyewall diameters of 4 and 22 n mi several hours ago. The latest satellite intensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 75 kt, which is also in line with the earlier SFMR data from the aircraft. The next reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this evening. Dorian is moving northwestward or 325 at 11 kt. The hurricane should continue moving northwestward tonight between an upper-level low just to the west of Dorian and a mid-level ridge near Bermuda. On Friday, the ridge is forecast to begin building westward to the north of the cyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause the hurricane to turn west-northwestward. A west-northwestward to westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle, with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous advisory at 96 and 120 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Dorian will be moving through a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow for at least steady intensification, and Dorian is forecast to become major hurricane on Friday. Dorian is predicted to remain a dangerous hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper end of the guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and FSSE models. The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing, and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC model cycle. Key Messages: 1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.5N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.8N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 25.2N 70.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.5N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 27.0N 77.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 20:46:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 21:24:29 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 292045 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 19(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 20(48) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 21(40) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 26(51) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 22(66) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 27(65) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 22(33) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 44(54) 22(76) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 21(45) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 41(78) 11(89) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 16(59) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 14(37) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 46(66) 16(82) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 18(53) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 39(86) 7(93) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 42(56) 13(69) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 12(48) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 35(86) 6(92) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 39(55) 11(66) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 9(42) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 35(78) 8(86) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 31(42) 9(51) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 36(53) 12(65) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 8(34) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 32(46) 11(57) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 7(28) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) 10(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 12(35) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 19(59) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 23(66) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 29(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 30(67) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 31(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 74(79) 14(93) 2(95) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 24(70) 3(73) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 27(51) 2(53) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 49(58) 8(66) 2(68) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30) 1(31) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 10(37) 3(40) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 1(25) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 9(31) 3(34) X(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 292045 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 67.7W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of this area on Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into early next week: The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DORIAN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 29 the center of Dorian was located near 22.5, -67.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 927 WTNT25 KNHC 292044 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 67.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 67.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.8N 68.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.2N 70.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.5N 74.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 28.1N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 67.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291701
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located a little less than 400 miles east of the
southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 14:47:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 15:24:41 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 291447 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared satellite imagery this morning. Recent reports from a NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure, with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to around 986 mb. The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75 kt for this advisory. Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Dorian is forecast to continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond 72 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could occur. Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. With the small inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term given the concentric eyewall structure. The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast. The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 529 FONT15 KNHC 291446 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 18(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 20(47) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 21(40) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 28(51) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 24(66) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 17(33) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 30(66) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 24(75) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 22(45) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 53(75) 14(89) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 18(58) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 15(36) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 53(63) 18(81) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 20(53) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 52(82) 9(91) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 15(67) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 14(46) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 51(82) 7(89) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) 13(61) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 11(40) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 47(73) 8(81) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 10(47) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) 15(62) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 12(54) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 11(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 13(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 23(58) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 27(65) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 32(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 32(66) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 32(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) 28(90) 3(93) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 39(65) 4(69) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) 4(48) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 46(51) 13(64) 2(66) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 11(35) 3(38) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 13(20) 5(25) 1(26) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 14(34) 3(37) X(37) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 67.2W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into early next week: The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 29 the center of Dorian was located near 21.4, -67.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.